Category: Pakistan Politics

Islamabad, Nov 30 – Pakistan’s rupee has plunged almost five percent to a record low after what appeared to be a sixth devaluation by the central bank in the past year as the country struggles with an acute balance of payment crisis.

The unit sank to 143 rupees against the dollar on Friday, just a day after Prime Minister Imran Khan’s government celebrated 100 days in office with a televised conference boasting of its achievements.

The State Bank of Pakistan has indirectly devalued the state-managed unit several times already as it tries to narrow a huge balance of payments deficit.

But traders are concerned that neither Khan nor his Finance Minister Asad Umar laid out a comprehensive plan to address the country’s economic woes more than a week after negotiations with the International Monetary Fund ended without a much-needed bailout agreement.

The former cricketer has launched a highly publicised austerity drive since being sworn in, including auctioning off government-owned luxury vehicles and buffaloes, in addition to seeking loans from “friendly countries” and making overtures to the IMF.

“The market was disappointed to see that there was no clear-cut direction of the government regarding raising loans from IMF or taxation policies for the rest of its term,” said Hamad Iqbal, director of research at Elixir Securities.

IMF talks ongoing
The rupee has lost about a third of its value since the start of the year as Pakistan struggles with chronic inflation as it burns through its dwindling foreign currency reserves, which are down around 40 percent this year.

Pakistan secured $6bn in funding from Saudi Arabia and struck a 12-month deal for a cash lifeline during Khan’s visit to the kingdom in October.

Despite the pledges, the ministry of finance said Pakistan would still seek broader IMF support for the government’s long-term economic planning.

With talks with the IMF still ongoing, Khan’s new government has been searching for ways to rally its struggling economy. Pakistan has been a regular borrower from the IMF since the 1980s.

Islamabad has received billions of dollars in Chinese loans to finance ambitious infrastructure projects, but the United States – one of the IMF’s biggest donors – has raised fears that Pakistan could use any bailout money to repay its debts to China.

The IMF and the World Bank forecasts suggest the Pakistani economy is likely to grow by 4-4.5 percent for the fiscal year ending June 2019 compared to the last year growth of 5.8 percent

Over the years, China-Pakistan relations have evolved positively. The mainstream media of the two countries always features the mantra of friendship and brotherly ties. Despite that, however, from day one China has been concerned about one thing in Pakistan: security. Both religious extremists and Baloch separatists have reportedly killed Chinese citizens inside Pakistan in the past.

The most recent incident came on November 23, 2018, when three heavily armed militants from the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) targeted the Chinese consulate in Karachi. Two police officers and two visa applicants were killed. The Chinese officials inside the consulate remained safe, and the Baloch militants were killed in retaliatory firing.

Back in August, a suicide bomber attacked a bus carrying Chinese engineers in Balochistan’s Chaghi district. Aside from the attacker, there were no fatalities, but three of the Chinese engineers were injured along with three security personnel. The BLA was behind that attack as well.

It is no secret that Baloch separatists are opposed to Chinese working across the province. But last week marked the first time that Baloch separatists carried out attacks against Chinese officials in Karachi, which is located outside of Balochistan, in neighboring Sindh province. Many analysts argue that the Baloch separatists wanted to create panic among Chinese officials, and they have succeeded to some extent. Analysts also fear that these kinds of attacks will continue in the future. That is why the attack also raised questions about the security situation for the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) in Pakistan in general and in Balochistan in particular.

Religious extremists in Pakistan have also reportedly killed Chinese citizens. Their anger dates back more than a decade, to the crackdown on Lal Masjid (mosque) in Islamabad in 2007, which many believe was the result of Chinese pressure on the Pakistani government. More recently, heavy-handed repression China’s Muslim majority region of Xinjiang is also stirring up anti-China sentiments in Pakistan. These factors, among others, have driven religious extremists to act against Chinese citizens in Pakistan. In the past, when Pakistan has taken robust actions against religious and sectarian militant groups across the country, Chinese nationals have been kidnapped and killed in response.

The attacks targeting the Chinese consulate in Karachi and Chinese engineers in Balochistan suggest that Baloch separatists have changed their modus operandi, becoming more radicalized. For instance, they have followed in the footsteps of religious extremists by using suicide bombings in their latest attacks.

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan and Chief of Army Staff (COAS) General Qamar Javed Bajwa unequivocally condemned the attack on the Chinese consulate and praised the security forces for preventing more serious causalities. After that, Pakistan’s mainstream media, especially TV channels, accused India of being behind the attack on the consulate. Reuters reported that India issued a swift condemnation of the attack on the Chinese consulate, but analysts in Pakistan assert that India has been supporting Baloch separatists in Balochistan, which shares borders with Afghanistan and Iran.

The Chinese Embassy in Pakistan also strongly condemned the attack, stating: “We believe that the Pakistan side is able to ensure the safety of Chinese institutions and personnel in Pakistan. Any attempt to undermine the China-Pakistan relationship is doomed to fail.”

CPEC’s Security Concerns
Baloch nationalists have long been opposed to the Chinese presence and investments projects in Balochistan. They are apprehensive about CPEC developments in their province as many Balochs fear the wave of investment will bring about demographic changes, turning them into a minority group in their own province.

The multibillion dollar project originates from Balochistan’s Gwadar port. That means China cannot simply pull up stakes and move to safer ground; instead, Beijing has to find a way to safeguard its CPEC investments in Balochistan. Chinese engineers have been killed while working in the province in the past, and Baloch separatists have repeatedly taken to social media to threaten assaults on CPEC projects.

It is crystal clear China has its own geostrategic and geoeconomic interests in Pakistan. China thus wants CPEC to succeed at all costs. On the other hand, China is extremely concerned about the Baloch militant groups opposing the CPEC project. Chinese analysts have recommended that the Chinese government take care to build up local support for the project to ensure its success. As Shi Zhiqin and Lu Yang put it in a paper for the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center, “China should abandon its traditional way of dealing only with the Pakistani government and instead get in contact with local communities to better accommodate local interests so that more Pakistani people can benefit from the CPEC.”

The Financial Times also reported that China has been secretly holding talks with Baloch separatists in order to protect CPEC. But soon after the report all the parties involved – China, Pakistan, and the Balochs – denied it.
Balochistan’s former Chief Minister Dr. Abdul Malik Baloch (2013-2015) had been pushing for talks with Baloch separatist leaders. He reportedly held a series of secret meetings with Brahumdagh Bugti, one of influential separatist Baloch leaders. According to some accounts, he was also accompanied by ex-federal minister Lt. General (Retd) Abdul Qadir Baloch. But unfortunately, these talks failed to produce any results.

The Baloch Perspective
CPEC has been dubbed a game changer by Pakistani officials. But have the Balochs been able to voice their perspective? Even though CPEC originates from Gwadar and Balochistan, the Balochs have hardly been discussed in official rhetoric about the project. There is no evidence that the Baloch will reap the benefits of having CPEC in the province.

As a result, many Balochs are apprehensive because their consent was not sought at the time of the announcement of CPEC — despite the fact that their land makes the backbone of the corridor. Also, Balochs themselves foresee a wave of Pakistanis from outside their province arriving and investing in Gwadar following CPEC.

It is a common fear among Balochs – not only Baloch nationalists — that these CPEC-related projects will bring about a demographic change in the near future. Already, many people in Gwadar have sold their lands at cut-rate prices to investors from outside of Balochistan. Baloch nationalists see this trend as a “take over” that it will be demographically a disaster for Balochs, because it will change the ethnicity of the area.

CPEC projects are likely to escalate the conflict between the Balochs and the state, as these two forces did not trust each other from the very beginning. Pakistan has already announced that it will provide a 10,000-strong security force to protect CPEC, while Baloch separatists have carried out attacks on workers along the route.

Pakistan has a history of trying to achieve objectives in a rush, without taking the time to develop a grounded understanding of the issue involved. That history is playing out again in Balochistan with CPEC. The question is: can Pakistan (even with China’s help) bring about development in a province hit by insurgency after insurgency?

Make no mistake: Balochs want development. After all, 75 percent of Balochs live in rural areas. They also want to be part of that development, but before that Pakistan has to resolve the Baloch political issue. Only then can development take place in a safe environment.

Balochs have always been dealt an iron hand. But today, unlike the past, Balochs are educated, literate, and aware of their political rights.

Besides Balochistan, a great number of Baloch youths are studying in different universities of Punjab, Sindh, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces. But after completion of their education, they mostly remain jobless. There is a golden opportunity for the state of Pakistan to involve the Baloch youths in CPEC-related projects, both to create jobs for them and create buy-in from the Baloch population. Balochs need to see evidence that the development coming with CPEC is for them, not for outsiders.

If Pakistan fails to convince young Balochs of that, they may join the Baloch separatists in fighting against the state.

Muhammad Akbar Notezai works with Dawn newspaper.

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan—The Pakistani rupee dropped steeply against the dollar Tuesday after the government said it was seeking a bailout from the International Monetary Fund, which will likely lead to tough economic policies and slow the nation’s economic growth.

Prime Minister Imran Khan’s new administration was forced to turn to the lender of last resort after its planned alternatives to the IMF didn’t work out, officials said, especially aid from Gulf nations.

Economists say the government needs to raise some $12 billion to head off a financial meltdown from its inherited crisis of a mushrooming trade deficit and dwindling foreign-exchange reserves.

The new government of Prime Minister Imran Khan will likely have to rein in spending and increase taxes.

To the alarm of the markets, Mr. Khan’s nationalist government had suggested it could make do without the IMF by raising enough cash through grants and loans from other countries, bond sales and money from overseas Pakistanis. Officials say the government hoped in that way to either avoid the IMF or make any loan much smaller and therefore have less onerous strictures attached.

In particular, Pakistan was looking for cash injections from China, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Mr. Khan visited Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E. last month to ask for financial assistance. But so far, the requested cash hasn’t materialized from the Gulf. China has provided loans in recent weeks in addition to several billion dollars of short-term lending over the last two years, officials say.

Chaudhry Fawad Hussain, Pakistan’s information minister, said Tuesday that Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E. put unacceptable conditions on providing any money. He didn’t spell out what strings were attached, but in the past those Gulf states have pressured Pakistan to join their war against Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen and pushed for Islamabad to enlist in their campaign to isolate their regional rival Iran
Pakistan is close to Saudi Arabia but at the same time has sought not to antagonize Iran, with which it shares a long border.

“There are no free lunches,” said Mr. Hussain, speaking on a local television station. “Nations look after their own interests.”

There was no immediate reaction from Saudi Arabia or the U.A.E.

Pakistan’s new government, in power for less than two months, had promised millions of new jobs and the creation of what it called an “Islamic welfare state.” Instead it now looks more likely to have to rein in spending and increase taxes under an IMF program.

“Decisive policy action and significant external financing will be needed to stabilize the economy,” the IMF said last week after a visit by the organization’s officials to Pakistan.

An IMF loan would have to cover most of Pakistan’s financial shortfall and would likely come with strict terms for fiscal reform—posing a difficult situation for Pakistanis as the weak rupee leads to higher inflation.

A rescue from the IMF will also be embarrassing for China, Islamabad’s closest ally, which had made Pakistan the showcase for its global infrastructure-building program. Cutbacks in that program can be expected along with IMF scrutiny of Pakistan’s financial obligations to China, Pakistani officials said.

China is building roads, power plants and a port in a $62 billion program in Pakistan.

The IMF move will also push Pakistan into the crossfire of the continuing economic confrontation between China and the U.S. Washington, which has accused Beijing of “debt-trap diplomacy,” said in July that any IMF bailout for Pakistan shouldn’t go toward paying off China.

Imports from China are the biggest nonfuel contributor to the country’s trade deficit. Pakistani officials privately say they would like to renegotiate a free- trade deal with Beijing to make it better for Pakistani businesses, which complain it allows unfair competition from China.

The Pakistani rupee fell as much as 10.2% to 137 rupees to the dollar on Tuesday before regaining some ground. That isn’t far from the biggest-ever, one-day fall of 11% after Pakistan tested its nuclear weapon in October 1998.

After the financial crisis, investors sought higher returns in risky emerging markets. Today, the money is flowing back to the U.S. What went wrong for countries such as Argentina and Turkey, and could it get worse?

Investors are betting the IMF will want to see the rupee weaken to around 145 to the dollar, said Tahir Abbas, vice president for investment research at brokerage Arif Habib.

“The IMF will want to see the economy cool off, to reduce demand in order to manage the current-account deficit,” he said.

A weakening currency helps a country’s trade balance by making exports cheaper and imports more expensive.

Many economists believed the previous government of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif supported the Pakistani currency at too strong a level. Only in its last few months did it allow the rupee to depreciate. The rupee is now around 30% lower than it was late last year.

Pakistan is already scaling back China’s infrastructure-building initiative in the country under the new government, but because of Pakistan’s reliance on China, the retrenchment is being done discreetly.

Around a third of the planned Chinese projects are already under way or completed—financed by Chinese loans or an obligation to buy electricity from new Chinese power plants. The new government still has to decide—now likely with IMF input—on the fate of the rest.

With less government spending, economic growth will likely slow to less than 5% this year after hitting a 13-year high of nearly 6% last year, analysts say.

An IMF spokesman said it hadn’t yet received a formal request for a program from Pakistan’s authorities.
“However, we understand that Pakistan intends to approach the IMF for support. Once we receive a formal request, the IMF will consider it as it does for other members of the IMF,” the spokesman said.

—Josh Zumbrun contributed to this article.

ISLAMABAD, Sept 11: Former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, his daughter Maryam Nawaz and son-in-law Captain (retd) Muhammad Safdar were released on parole in the wee hours of Wednesday, after the death of Begum Kulosoom Nawaz.

A notification issued by the Punjab Home Department said the three were released for 12 hours to attend the funeral of Kulsoom Nawaz.

Television footages show that Sharif, Maryam and Safdar were being taken out of the Adiala Jail in a motorcade. They were expected to travel to Lahore sometime in the night.

The decision to release the Sharifs came on an application moved by Sharif’s younger brother Shehbaz Sharif.
“The duration of permission granted shall not exceed twelve hours, which shall not include the time consumed for journey to and from the prison,” the notification said.

Begum Kulsoom Nawaz passes away in London

Earlier, the PM Office released a short statement, saying the government would extend all-out support to the family and relatives of Begum Kulsoom, in accordance with the law. The statement further reads that the Pakistani High Commission in the UK has been directed to extend assistance to the bereaved family.

Talking to The Express Tribune PM’s Special Assistant on Political Affairs Naeemul Haq had said the government would positively respond to the Sharif family’s request for release of its imprisoned family members to attend the funeral.

However, Federal Information Minister Fawad Chaudhry clarified that under the amended rules in Punjab, parole of a convict could not exceed 12 hours. He said the government had no objection to the approval of a parole application.

“Earlier, there was a provision to release convicts on parole for a maximum of three days but later, relevant law was amended and now temporary release is granted for not more than 12 hours. While living within the ambit of laws, Sharif family will be extended all-out cooperation,” he said.

Aitzaz apologises for remarks on Begum Kulsoom’s illness following her demise.

Parole is a method under which the punishment of a convict is temporarily suspended for a specific time and he/she is set free for a defined purpose under the supervision of police officials.

Rules provide that prisoner’s family submits an application with provincial parole committee that considers it and with its comments forwards it to the home secretary who has the authority to accept or reject it.

In 2004, Sharif and his family members, including Punjab former chief minister Shehbaz Sharif, had not attended the funeral of their father, Mian Sharif. At that time, the Sharif family was in exile. In 2002, former president Asif Ali Zardari was released on parole from Adiala jail to attend funeral of his mother.

Shehbaz’s departure for London

According to sources in the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), PML-N President Shehbaz Sharif was likely to leave for London at 3am on Wednesday to receive Kulsoom Nawaz’s dead body, which, reports suggested, was shifted to a mortuary in London temporarily.

Earlier, the PML-N chief flew to Rawalpindi to meet his elder brother Nawaz at Adiala Jail. Sources in the PML-N said both the Sharifs, after discussing the funeral arrangements in detail, agreed that Hassan Nawaz and Hussain Nawaz, the ex-PM’s two sons, should not arrive in Pakistan.

Hassan and Hussain have been declared absconders by the Accountability Court in the Avenfield Apartments reference and would be arrested in case they land in Pakistan.

Kulsoom’s body would be brought to Allama Iqbal International Airport Lahore from Heathrow Airport London on Thursday, PML-N sources said. Her funeral prayers would be held the following day, after Friday prayers. She would be buried at Sharif family’s graveyard in Jati Umra, Raiwand the same day.

ISLAMABAD: Chief of Army Staff (COAS) General Qamar Javed Bajwa said on Sunday that democracy in the country was fostering with time.
The army chief was speaking to the media at Arif Alvi’s oath-taking ceremony. “Democratic institutions are quickly becoming more robust and will only get stronger with the passage of time,” Gen Qamar was quoted as saying. “This is an important day for the continuity of democracy in the country,” the COAS added.
Alvi was sworn in as Pakistan’s 13th head of state in a ceremony held at Aiwan-e-Sadr in Islamabad. Chief Justice of Pakistan Mian Saqib Nisar administered the oath in a ceremony that was attended by top civil-military brass including Prime Minister Imran Khan, Bajwa and Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee Gen Zubair Hayat. Saudi, Chinese diplomats also attended the presidential oath.
The newly-sworn in president was later given his first guard of honour by the smartly turned out contingents of the armed forces at Aiwan-e-Sadr.
Alvi is succeeding Mamnoon Hussain, who took oath as 12th head of state on September 9, 2013 after his election as a candidate of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N).
It is pertinent to mention that civil-military relations have always been subject to controversies in Pakistan. The relations went particularly sour during the tenure of the erstwhile ruling party Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), following the controversial Dawn leaks.
After the eviction of former PM Nawaz Sharif by Supreme Court in the infamous panama leaks case, the PML-N leadership, especially Nawaf Sharif, openly criticized the role of Pakistan Army and even accused it of cross-border terrorism in an interview.
In the past, Pakistan has been viewed in the west as a country influenced by its armed forces, but the country has witnessed positive chances in this narrative since the arrival of the Pakistan-Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) government, led by Imran Khan.
Soon after taking charge, PM Imran Khan went to GHQ where he held an eight-hour long with the military heads. The PM was briefed on the overall security situation of the country as well as on the workings of the army.
On September 6, during a ceremony held in the honour of the martyrs of Pakistan Army, PM Imran Khan reiterated that the government and army was on the same page, which is to help Pakistan stand on its own feet. He went on rebuff all rumours regarding a possible rift between the government and army, and said that Pakistan Army, like other institutions, was working in close coordination with the government.

PTI’s Dr Arif Alvi was elected the 13th president of Pakistan on Tuesday.

The country’s new president is a politician, dentist and parliamentarian. He has been described as the “chief whip of the PTI” in his profile on the party’s website.

Born in Karachi on July 29, 1949, Dr Alvi acquired a degree in dentistry from de’Montmonrency College of Dentistry, an affiliate of the University of Punjab, and then completed his master’s in prosthodontics (fixing or replacing teeth ) and orthodontics (straightening teeth to improve alignment).

He was the first Pakistani to specialise in orthodontics, according to the PTI’s website.

In 1995, Dr Alvi was certified by the Diplomate American Board of Orthodontists and became the only Pakistani or SAARC dentist to have achieved this level of qualification.

Dr Alvi, who is one of the founding members of the PTI, started his political career as the president of the student union at de’Montmonrency College of Dentistry in Lahore, Pakistan.

He was an active member of the student movements of the Jamaat-e-Islami which occurred during the tenure of General Ayub Khan. Dr Alvi was shot twice during one of the protests on Lahore’s Mall Road at the time. One of the bullets is still embedded in his right arms, which he proudly carries as a mark of his struggle for democracy.

When Imran Khan started the PTI in in 1996, Dr Alvi joined him and began his long career with the PTI.
He contested the 1997 election for the Sindh Assembly PS-89 seat but lost to PML-N candidate Saleem Zia. In the same year, he was appointed the party’s Sindh chapter president.

In 2002 he lost the election on PS-90 to the MMA’s Umar Sadiq. Despite losing, he was made the party’s secretary general in 2006, a post he served on till 2013.

In 2013 he was elected to the National Assembly from NA-250, beating the MQM’s Khushbakht Shujaat. He was appointed the PTI’s Sindh president again in 2016.

During the General Election 2018, he was victorious from Karachi’s NA-247. While campaigning for the elections, he drove a rickshaw in Karachi and garnered attention on social media.

The father of four, who is married to Samina Alvi, is the son of Dr Habibur Rehman Elahi Alvi, the dentist of Jawaharlal Nehru. His father migrated to Pakistan in 1947 and operated a dental clinic in Saddar, Karachi. According to Dr Alvi’s son Awab, his grandfather was a member of the JI and was very close to the party’s then head Syed Munawar Hussain.

Prime Minister Imran Khan nominated Dr Alvi as president on August 18, two days after taking oath as the country’s premier.

Prime Minister Imran Khan has asked that the media give his government three months before criticising its performance, DawnNewsTV reported on Friday.

The statement was made during a meeting with journalists in Islamabad.

The PM promised that three months down the road, there will be a marked difference in the way the country is run. He also mentioned that none of his cabinet members was appointed permanently and could be shuffled around on the basis of performance.

According to Geo.tv, PM Khan, responding to a question, said that while Pakistan cannot fight the US and looks to improve ties with Washington, the government will not give in to any unjust demands made by the White House.

He mentioned that Pakistan seeks peaceful relations with India, Afghanistan and Iran as well.

According to DawnNewsTV, PM Khan also told journalists that he has directed the chairman of the National Accountability Bureau to continue an indiscriminate accountability process in the country.

He added that if any member of the government is suspected of any indiscretion, they should also be held accountable.

The prime minister also pointed out that Pakistan’s circular debts stands at Rs1.2 trillion and that progress would not be possible without across-the-board accountability.

During the meeting, PM Khan was also asked about his usage of a helicopter for travel to and from Banigala, which he defended as a way of saving citizens from the trouble of traffic holdups.

Islamabad, Pakistan: Fulfilling his poll promise to clampdown on corruption, Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan on Tuesday gave a deadline of two weeks to a task force to chalk out a plan to recover unlawfully acquired foreign assets and stashed wealth.

On Monday, the task force chaired its first meeting, where various government departments informed the unit of the current status of pending probes of money laundering and financial fraud cases, officials were quoted by The Express Tribune, as saying.

Khan has said that his topmost priority is to retrieve hidden offshore assets and promised to bring back ill-gotten wealth in overseas banks.

According to the terms of reference (ToR) of the task force, Khan has set a deadline of two weeks for the body to take steps for the “expedient return of unlawfully acquired assets from abroad”.

Meanwhile, the chairman of the task force has directed Pakistan’s Finance Ministry to share earlier reports prepared by the committees set up under the purview of the country’s Supreme Court to recover the unlawfully acquired foreign assets.

The task force has been asked to review all cases of financial fraud pending before the government departments and organisations. The body will also be responsible for the investigation of the existing mechanism, international agreements, working out modalities to fast-track the recovery of ill-gotten wealth and undeclared offshore assets, and ensuring coordination of the Pakistan government with other governments on the same, The Express Tribune report said.

Recently, Pakistan gave its citizens the last opportunity to declare their wealth and offered them offshore and domestic tax amnesty schemes. While over 5,000 people availed the offshore scheme and declared over USD 8 billion assets, the repatriation to the country was less than USD 70 million.

On August 19, in his first address to the nation after being sworn-in as Pakistan’s prime minister, Khan vowed to tackle corruption and said that he would form a task force to bring back swindled money to the country. (ANI)