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Pakistan rupee hits record low against US dollar

Islamabad, Nov 30 – Pakistan’s rupee has plunged almost five percent to a record low after what appeared to be a sixth devaluation by the central bank in the past year as the country struggles with an acute balance of payment crisis.

The unit sank to 143 rupees against the dollar on Friday, just a day after Prime Minister Imran Khan’s government celebrated 100 days in office with a televised conference boasting of its achievements.

The State Bank of Pakistan has indirectly devalued the state-managed unit several times already as it tries to narrow a huge balance of payments deficit.

But traders are concerned that neither Khan nor his Finance Minister Asad Umar laid out a comprehensive plan to address the country’s economic woes more than a week after negotiations with the International Monetary Fund ended without a much-needed bailout agreement.

The former cricketer has launched a highly publicised austerity drive since being sworn in, including auctioning off government-owned luxury vehicles and buffaloes, in addition to seeking loans from “friendly countries” and making overtures to the IMF.

“The market was disappointed to see that there was no clear-cut direction of the government regarding raising loans from IMF or taxation policies for the rest of its term,” said Hamad Iqbal, director of research at Elixir Securities.

IMF talks ongoing
The rupee has lost about a third of its value since the start of the year as Pakistan struggles with chronic inflation as it burns through its dwindling foreign currency reserves, which are down around 40 percent this year.

Pakistan secured $6bn in funding from Saudi Arabia and struck a 12-month deal for a cash lifeline during Khan’s visit to the kingdom in October.

Despite the pledges, the ministry of finance said Pakistan would still seek broader IMF support for the government’s long-term economic planning.

With talks with the IMF still ongoing, Khan’s new government has been searching for ways to rally its struggling economy. Pakistan has been a regular borrower from the IMF since the 1980s.

Islamabad has received billions of dollars in Chinese loans to finance ambitious infrastructure projects, but the United States – one of the IMF’s biggest donors – has raised fears that Pakistan could use any bailout money to repay its debts to China.

The IMF and the World Bank forecasts suggest the Pakistani economy is likely to grow by 4-4.5 percent for the fiscal year ending June 2019 compared to the last year growth of 5.8 percent

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Why Balochs Are Targeting China (Akbar Notezai – The Diplomat)

Over the years, China-Pakistan relations have evolved positively. The mainstream media of the two countries always features the mantra of friendship and brotherly ties. Despite that, however, from day one China has been concerned about one thing in Pakistan: security. Both religious extremists and Baloch separatists have reportedly killed Chinese citizens inside Pakistan in the past.

The most recent incident came on November 23, 2018, when three heavily armed militants from the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) targeted the Chinese consulate in Karachi. Two police officers and two visa applicants were killed. The Chinese officials inside the consulate remained safe, and the Baloch militants were killed in retaliatory firing.

Back in August, a suicide bomber attacked a bus carrying Chinese engineers in Balochistan’s Chaghi district. Aside from the attacker, there were no fatalities, but three of the Chinese engineers were injured along with three security personnel. The BLA was behind that attack as well.

It is no secret that Baloch separatists are opposed to Chinese working across the province. But last week marked the first time that Baloch separatists carried out attacks against Chinese officials in Karachi, which is located outside of Balochistan, in neighboring Sindh province. Many analysts argue that the Baloch separatists wanted to create panic among Chinese officials, and they have succeeded to some extent. Analysts also fear that these kinds of attacks will continue in the future. That is why the attack also raised questions about the security situation for the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) in Pakistan in general and in Balochistan in particular.

Religious extremists in Pakistan have also reportedly killed Chinese citizens. Their anger dates back more than a decade, to the crackdown on Lal Masjid (mosque) in Islamabad in 2007, which many believe was the result of Chinese pressure on the Pakistani government. More recently, heavy-handed repression China’s Muslim majority region of Xinjiang is also stirring up anti-China sentiments in Pakistan. These factors, among others, have driven religious extremists to act against Chinese citizens in Pakistan. In the past, when Pakistan has taken robust actions against religious and sectarian militant groups across the country, Chinese nationals have been kidnapped and killed in response.

The attacks targeting the Chinese consulate in Karachi and Chinese engineers in Balochistan suggest that Baloch separatists have changed their modus operandi, becoming more radicalized. For instance, they have followed in the footsteps of religious extremists by using suicide bombings in their latest attacks.

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan and Chief of Army Staff (COAS) General Qamar Javed Bajwa unequivocally condemned the attack on the Chinese consulate and praised the security forces for preventing more serious causalities. After that, Pakistan’s mainstream media, especially TV channels, accused India of being behind the attack on the consulate. Reuters reported that India issued a swift condemnation of the attack on the Chinese consulate, but analysts in Pakistan assert that India has been supporting Baloch separatists in Balochistan, which shares borders with Afghanistan and Iran.

The Chinese Embassy in Pakistan also strongly condemned the attack, stating: “We believe that the Pakistan side is able to ensure the safety of Chinese institutions and personnel in Pakistan. Any attempt to undermine the China-Pakistan relationship is doomed to fail.”

CPEC’s Security Concerns
Baloch nationalists have long been opposed to the Chinese presence and investments projects in Balochistan. They are apprehensive about CPEC developments in their province as many Balochs fear the wave of investment will bring about demographic changes, turning them into a minority group in their own province.

The multibillion dollar project originates from Balochistan’s Gwadar port. That means China cannot simply pull up stakes and move to safer ground; instead, Beijing has to find a way to safeguard its CPEC investments in Balochistan. Chinese engineers have been killed while working in the province in the past, and Baloch separatists have repeatedly taken to social media to threaten assaults on CPEC projects.

It is crystal clear China has its own geostrategic and geoeconomic interests in Pakistan. China thus wants CPEC to succeed at all costs. On the other hand, China is extremely concerned about the Baloch militant groups opposing the CPEC project. Chinese analysts have recommended that the Chinese government take care to build up local support for the project to ensure its success. As Shi Zhiqin and Lu Yang put it in a paper for the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center, “China should abandon its traditional way of dealing only with the Pakistani government and instead get in contact with local communities to better accommodate local interests so that more Pakistani people can benefit from the CPEC.”

The Financial Times also reported that China has been secretly holding talks with Baloch separatists in order to protect CPEC. But soon after the report all the parties involved – China, Pakistan, and the Balochs – denied it.
Balochistan’s former Chief Minister Dr. Abdul Malik Baloch (2013-2015) had been pushing for talks with Baloch separatist leaders. He reportedly held a series of secret meetings with Brahumdagh Bugti, one of influential separatist Baloch leaders. According to some accounts, he was also accompanied by ex-federal minister Lt. General (Retd) Abdul Qadir Baloch. But unfortunately, these talks failed to produce any results.

The Baloch Perspective
CPEC has been dubbed a game changer by Pakistani officials. But have the Balochs been able to voice their perspective? Even though CPEC originates from Gwadar and Balochistan, the Balochs have hardly been discussed in official rhetoric about the project. There is no evidence that the Baloch will reap the benefits of having CPEC in the province.

As a result, many Balochs are apprehensive because their consent was not sought at the time of the announcement of CPEC — despite the fact that their land makes the backbone of the corridor. Also, Balochs themselves foresee a wave of Pakistanis from outside their province arriving and investing in Gwadar following CPEC.

It is a common fear among Balochs – not only Baloch nationalists — that these CPEC-related projects will bring about a demographic change in the near future. Already, many people in Gwadar have sold their lands at cut-rate prices to investors from outside of Balochistan. Baloch nationalists see this trend as a “take over” that it will be demographically a disaster for Balochs, because it will change the ethnicity of the area.

CPEC projects are likely to escalate the conflict between the Balochs and the state, as these two forces did not trust each other from the very beginning. Pakistan has already announced that it will provide a 10,000-strong security force to protect CPEC, while Baloch separatists have carried out attacks on workers along the route.

Pakistan has a history of trying to achieve objectives in a rush, without taking the time to develop a grounded understanding of the issue involved. That history is playing out again in Balochistan with CPEC. The question is: can Pakistan (even with China’s help) bring about development in a province hit by insurgency after insurgency?

Make no mistake: Balochs want development. After all, 75 percent of Balochs live in rural areas. They also want to be part of that development, but before that Pakistan has to resolve the Baloch political issue. Only then can development take place in a safe environment.

Balochs have always been dealt an iron hand. But today, unlike the past, Balochs are educated, literate, and aware of their political rights.

Besides Balochistan, a great number of Baloch youths are studying in different universities of Punjab, Sindh, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces. But after completion of their education, they mostly remain jobless. There is a golden opportunity for the state of Pakistan to involve the Baloch youths in CPEC-related projects, both to create jobs for them and create buy-in from the Baloch population. Balochs need to see evidence that the development coming with CPEC is for them, not for outsiders.

If Pakistan fails to convince young Balochs of that, they may join the Baloch separatists in fighting against the state.

Muhammad Akbar Notezai works with Dawn newspaper.

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Pakistani woman police commander led defense of Chinese mission

ISLAMABAD (Reuters) – Pakistani policewoman Suhai Aziz Talpur heard of the attack on the Chinese consulate in Karachi while driving to work. She rushed to the scene to find two of her colleagues dead, and a trio of insurgents attempting to blow their way into the building.

Her fast response and actions during the nearly two-hour assault on the diplomatic mission in the southern port city have been praised for saving countless lives, turning 30-year-old Talpur into an instant celebrity – and potential feminist icon – in Pakistan, where female police officers remain rare.

“The moment I arrived, an exchange of fire was taking place, blasts had been heard, smoke was emanating,” Talpur, an assistant superintendent, told Reuters.

Right away, she took up a position to fire at the attackers and began calling for reinforcements.

“We started to advance inside the consulate and gradually neutralized the situation,” she said.

Since the attack a picture of Talpur holding her pistol, flanked by commandos, has gone viral on social media in Pakistan. Her bravery has also earned her a nomination for the country’s highest award for police officers.
Friday’s attack, claimed by separatist insurgents from the impoverished southwestern Pakistani province of Baluchistan, killed four people, including two police officers who Talpur said were the real heroes.

“The real credit goes to assistant sub-inspector Ashraf (Dawood) and constable Amir (Khan) who kept the attackers engaged and sacrificed their lives,” she said.

Once the attack ended, Talpur was among the first police officers to enter the mission and began reassuring the staff.

“When I entered there was a Chinese lady and three or four Pakistani men,” she recalled. “The Chinese lady hugged me and I told her ‘you are in safe hands, things are under control’.”

Talpur, who is scheduled to be promoted soon, will be one of only two female officers above the rank of assistant superintendent in the Sindh provincial police force. But she believes women have a big role to play in law enforcement.

“A woman can be a better detective than a man, we see each and every thing and memorize it better,” she said.
Pakistan was recently ranked as the fourth worst country for women in a study conducted by the Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security. But the police and military have recently been running programs to encourage more women in law enforcement roles and in the armed forces.

Police officers are on the front lines of Pakistan’s battle against militancy, often targeted by Islamist and insurgent groups. In 2016, 59 cadets were killed when militants stormed a police academy in the southwestern city of Quetta. The attack was claimed by Islamic State, but Pakistani authorities blamed it on local militant group Lashkar-e-Jhangvi.

In Karachi, officers have been targeted by Taliban militants and scores have been killed in a wave of urban violence that engulfed the city for two decades from the 1990s.

Talpur, who hails from a small conservative village in the southern Sindh province, was studying to be a chartered accountant when she decided her chosen profession was too “dull” and joined the police instead.

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Fahmida Riaz passes away in Lahore

LAHORE: Well-known progressive Urdu writer, poet, human rights activist and feminist Fahmida Riaz has passed away on Wednesday night. She was 73 years of age.

She passed away after a prolonged illness in Lahore where she was with her daughter

Fahmida Riaz was born on July 28, 1945 in a literary family of Meerat, UP, India. Her family settled in the city of Hyderabad following her father’s transfer to the province of Sindh. Her father passed away when she was four and so she was brought up by her mother.

She learned about the Urdu and Sindhi literature in her childhood and later learnt the language of Persian. After completing her education she began working as a newscaster for Radio Pakistan.

Fahmida Riaz was encouraged and persuaded by her family to step into an arranged marriage after the graduation from college. She spent some years in the United Kingdom with her first husband before coming back to Pakistan after a divorce. During this period she worked with the BBC Urdu service (Radio) and got a degree in film making.

She has one daughter from that marriage.

She has two children from her second marriage with Zafar Ali Ujan, a leftist impressive political worker.

Fahmida Riaz worked in an advertising agency in the city of Karachi before beginning her own Urdu publication Awaz. The liberal and politically charged content of Awaz grabbed the attention of the Zia era and both Fahmida and her husband Zafar were charged with various cases—the magazine shut down and Zafar was imprisoned.

Fahmida Riaz was faced with challenges due to her political ideology. More than 10 cases were filed against her during General Ziaul Haq’s dictatorship. She was charged with sedition under Section 124A of the Pakistan Penal Code. After her husband was arrested she was bailed out by a fan of her works before she could be taken to jail and fled to India with her two small children and sister on the excuse of a Mushaira invitation.

Her friend the renowned poet Amrita Pritam who spoke to then prime minister (late) Indira Gandhi which got her asylum.

Her children went to school in India. She had relatives in India and her husband later joined her there after his release from jail.

The family spent almost seven years in exile before returning to Pakistan after Zia-ul-Haq’s death on the eve of Benazir Bhutto’s wedding reception. During this time Riaz had been poet in residence for Jamia Millia Islamia University in Delhi and it is during her exile that she learnt to read Hindi. She was greeted with a warm welcome upon her return from exile.

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The ascent of Sindhis in Chattisgarh

“No, no I’m told not to discuss any money issues here. Central offices will directly deal with it,” with these words, the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) candidate in Raipur North nearly whisked himself away to give an interview to a television channel. It took a while to explain it to Shrichand Sundrani, the candidate, that it was not money but a news story on Sindhis in the election that had brought this correspondent to his office.

In Chhattisgarh, politicians have stopped believing that news can be produced without cash transfers to journalists or media managers, especially during election. But once Mr. Sundrani was convinced that he did not have to pay for the story featuring him, he looked relaxed and even offered to be photographed with a picture of his personal saint, Gulab Baba of north Maharashtra.

Influence increasing
Mr. Sundrani did not deny that the political influence of Sindhis in Chhahttisgarh, “is increasing alongside Marwaris or Jains,” as other parties are also putting up Sindhi candidates. Members of the Sindhi community said that they did not mind who won in Raipur North as long as only Sindhi candidates are nominated by all parties. “We wanted to ensure that Raipur North turns into a dedicated Sindhi seat. It nearly happened this time but the Congress withdrew its Sindhi candidate,” said a community member close to the BJP.

The Congress had dominated the central Indian province through Brahmins and 36 royal families for half a century. With the rise of the Jana Sangh, the Marwaris and Jains of Raipur, who were less organised in politics, gathered under the saffron flag. The BJP and the Vaishya community’s rise in Chattisgarh was thus almost synchronised to the formation of Chattisgarh in 2000.

Late entrants
Sindhis are late entrants. “There was no way we could be early entrants in Chattisgarh’s politics,” said Kanhaiya Lal Chuggani, Chattisgarh chapter president of the Bhartiya Sindhu Sabha (BSS), a wing of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), the patriarch of the Sindhi community in Chattisgarh.

“We came as paupers and thus, it was a question of survival for a Sindhi. How can he give time to politics?” asks Mr. Chuggani.

“But Sindhis made money mainly through trading and their political aspirations increased. So, a few years ago, the Chattisgarh Chamber of Commerce had its first Sindhi president. Now, the Sindhis, who are 1% of the population, are joining politics,” said Mr. Chuggani.

The community was largely aligned with the BJP. “In 1940, RSS men, like the all-India president of BSS, Lakhsman Chandiramani (93), used to visit Sindh to campaign. The association [with RSS] continued and grew when L.K. Advani became the Deputy Prime Minister, and we naturally gravitated towards the BJP,” said Mr. Chuggani.
Sindhis now control many trades in Chattisgarh — from mobile phones, automobiles and clothes to kirana (grocery) stores, which were with other communities earlier. “We always work on a lower margin of profit compared with Agarwals or Jains. It is often said that wherever we go, we destroy the market,” laughed Mr. Chuggani, who feels that Sindhis can now financially influence both political parties and the public.

From within
Competition came from within the community in the 2018 election. There were nearly half a dozen contenders for the Raipur North constituency and Mr. Sundrani’s name was declared at the very end. Amar Parwani, a dynamic Sindhi businessman, and former head of Chattisgarh Chamber of Commerce, nearly bagged the BJP ticket.
“But Mr. Sundrani got it. The head of the Shadani Darbar, the most influential Sindhi pilgrimage, recommended Sundrani to the Chief Minister,” said a senior community member.

Moreover, “Parwani is a very new entrant in the BJP,” said a BJP official. But many in the Sindhi Samaj consider Mr. Sundrani, who won with a margin of a little over 3,000 votes in 2013, a weak candidate.

There are about 1 lakh Sindhis with 10%-15% votes in each of the four Raipur seats. But will they finally vote for a Sindhi? Mr. Sundrani thinks that “they definitely will.” But many Sindhis are in two minds. Whoever loses, Hindu Sindhis have won in Chattisgarh, 70 years after losing their homeland in southern Pakistan.

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Saudi prosecutor seeks death penalty in Khashoggi murder

Saudi Arabia’s deputy public prosecutor has said the kingdom is seeking the death penalty for five people who have been accused of carrying out the murder of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi.

Shaalan al-Shaalan told a news conference in Riyadh on Thursday that Ahmed al-Assiri, the kingdom’s former deputy head of intelligence, dispatched a team to Turkey to persuade Khashoggi to return to Saudi Arabia.
He said after “talks with him failed”, the head of the Saudi team in Istanbul ordered that Khashoggi be killed.

The 59-year-old then died from a lethal injection and his body was dismembered and taken out of the building, he said.

Al-Shaalan said 21 people were now in custody, with 11 indicted and referred to trial, adding that Saud al-Qahtani, a former adviser to the royal court, had been banned from travelling and remained under investigation.
Al-Shaalan said Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, also known as MBS, was not implicated in the gruesome murder that has triggered global outrage.

Khashoggi, a critic of MBS’s supposed reform programme, entered the Saudi consulate in Istanbul on October 2 to obtain a document certifying his divorce.

Saudi authorities had initially stated the journalist left the consulate, before backtracking and admitting on October 20 he was killed by “rogue” operatives.

Turkish officials have said it is unlikely Khashoggi could have been killed without the knowledge of MBS, with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan saying the orders came from “the highest levels of the Saudi government.”

According to the New York Times, a member of the Saudi team that killed Khashoggi made a phone call shortly after his death, instructing someone in Saudi Arabia to “tell your boss” that the assassination had been carried out.

Later on Thursday, Mevlut Cavusoglu, Turkey’s foreign minister, criticised the Saudi announcement as “insufficient” and insisted the killing was “premeditated.”

“Turkish law is applicable in this case, even though the murder took place in the Saudi consulate,” he said, demanding that all the suspects be extradited and “tried in accordance with Turkish law”.

Bill Law, a journalist and Middle East analyst, told Al Jazeera that despite not being implicated, there was “enormous pressure” accumulating on MBS, and Turkey could demand an international probe into the journalist’s murder.

“Just yesterday, Lindsey Graham described him [MBS] as unreliable and unstable.

“Graham, a senior Republican senator, and Bob Corker, the chair of the foreign relations committee, have called for an immediate end to the arms deals that the US has [with Saudi Arabia] in the Yemen war and has also said that as far as he’s concerned, Mohammed bin Salman is the person responsible,” Law said.

“[Erdogan] will keep up the demand for an international investigation. It is clear that no one has any faith in the Saudis investigating effectively, Mohammed bin Salman investigating himself nor in the Saudi judicial system.

“It’s a pressure point that Erdogan can continue to push on and I think he will do that.”

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Interview Malala’s father, Ziauddin Yousafzai: ‘I became a person who hates all injustice’ – Alex Clark (Guardian UK)

Ziauddin Yousafzai: ‘I will fight for women’s rights, for girls’ education, for women’s empowerment.’

Ziauddin Yousafzai founded a school in the Swat valley, Pakistan, where girls and boys were educated together. When his eldest child, Malala, was shot at point-blank range by the Taliban in 2012 in retaliation for her activism, the family relocated to Birmingham. In 2014, Malala was awarded the Nobel peace prize. Let Her Fly is Ziauddin’s account of his life and his fight for the rights of all children to receive equal education, opportunities and social and political recognition.

Your life in the aftermath of the attack on Malala is well known; what did you want to add in this book?
People may think that most of my story was already told, in Malala’s book four years ago, and that was one part of my life, a daughter’s father. But I was the brother of five sisters who had never been to school, the husband of a wife and the father of two sons. This book tries to cover the bigger picture of my life and the lessons I have learned. I have tried to honestly share them with readers so they can see how this transformation happened for me – from being a member of a patriarchal society to the kind of person I am now.

That journey started when you were very young, didn’t it?

In my early childhood, for some years, and like all other brothers and men in patriarchy, I accepted the situation for women like my mother or my sisters. I was the blue-eyed boy of my family – if I had been the sixth daughter to my parents, or if I had been one of my five sisters, the world would have never heard of me. Not even the world at large, but my own community.

What changed?

I was very conscious of this discrimination after my school life, at 16 or 17. One of my cousins who was in a forced marriage was shot in an honour killing accident and I was thinking, why are five of my sisters not going to school? This was the end of your life, in a way, of your social life, because the only dream parents had for girls was, the earlier they married, the better. So those are the circumstances that made me conscious, made me stand against the social contract, which was anti-development, anti-rights of girls.

When you were a child, you developed a stammer. Do you think this affected the course you took?

I was dark in colour, not from a rich family, I had stammering problems, so I was bullied by some of my class fellows and by my cousins, and I was feeling very unhappy and angry. I became a person who hates all kinds of discrimination and injustice in society, whether it’s because of the colour of somebody, because of any physical impairment, physical deficiencies or social status. I became very conscious of all these discriminations and one of the worst was among the boys and girls. And that’s why it became my mission in life that I will fight for women’s rights, for girls’ education, for women’s empowerment.

You decided to become a teacher, taught for a while in the public education system, and then set up your own school. What was that like?

I thought, let me start a school of my own, I will have more freedom to practise the vision that I have. I started my school with 15,000 rupees – about £100. It was very meagre capital. But the big capital and the big power that I had was my passion, my conviction, my connection to the community. I was so happy that the school I started, with just three kids, had 1,100 students – 500 girls and 600 boys – by 2012.

It was a huge achievement, but what you couldn’t change was that the Taliban had by then taken control of the Swat valley and imposed a ban on female education. That must have been hard.

It was the most traumatic and fearful time of our lives. It was a horrible time for the 1.4 million people of Swat. The Taliban were so terrible, they were so cruel.

So it was the hardest time for all of us and especially for people like me who were speaking against the Taliban, speaking against the ban on girls’ education, condemning the bombing and the banning of the schools. I spent some nights in our friend’s house because I did not want to be killed in front of my family; I thought that if I die, I will die, but my family won’t be able to come out of this trauma if they’ve seen me being killed.

And then the worst moment, when Malala was shot in the head while she was travelling on the school bus.
The trauma that we had in 2012 when she was attacked is quite difficult to be free of completely. The girl who I love, the girl who was like my comrade and is loved by the whole family, her mother and the two boys – we had all almost lost her. Her survival is a miracle.

You visited Pakistan earlier this year. What was that like?

I just felt the soil of home. It was such an emotional moment. When we were going from Pakistan six years ago, it was a very bad situation and this time, when we were going back, we landed at the same helipad from where Malala was lifted as an injured and wounded girl. We landed all five of us. So this wholeness of family was a great feeling: on the same land, in the same place, near our home in the Swat valley. This is our dream: to go back and to return to work for education.

Do you think that will ever be possible?

I hope that the situation is getting better with every passing day. It is never perfect and it’s not perfect in any country now – every country has to strive for peace in their country, and in their communities.

Even this year, when we were going to Pakistan, it was Malala’s decision. I said, let’s wait for some time. She said, Aba, you will never have a perfect time to go back. Let’s go. We have to go. I was so proud of her. I said OK, I’m your father; for me, it will be very difficult if you go on your own and I’m not with you and the family’s not with you. So she took all of us back to Pakistan and I hope that she will take us again.

• Let Her Fly by Ziauddin Yousafzai is published by Ebury (£14.99). To order a copy for £13.19 go to guardianbookshop.com or call 0330 333 6846. Free UK p&p over £10, online orders only. Phone orders min p&p of £1.99

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Strapped for cash, Pakistan looks to China and the Middle East for help

Strapped for cash, Pakistan looks to China and the Middle East for help

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan recently traveled to China in hopes of securing funds for his troubled country — but he left without any tangible guarantees.

The South Asian state, which recently received a $6 billion aid package from Saudi Arabia, is hunting for more external financing to avert a balance of payments crisis before approaching the International Monetary Fund.

“The way Islamabad sees it, the less it needs to ask from the IMF, the more leverage it may have at the negotiating table with the Fund,” said Michael Kugelman of the Wilson Center.

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan wrapped up a four-day visit to China on Monday without achieving his primary goal of securing Chinese financing. As the South Asian nation scrambles for external help, it may have no choice except to approach the International Monetary Fund for what would be its second bailout in five years.

Beijing is committed to assisting Islamabad but more talks are needed, Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Kong Xuanyou was quoted as saying on Saturday after a meeting between Khan and Chinese Premier Li Keqiang.

Pakistan’s economy, however, may not be able to wait much longer. The country urgently needs a capital boost in order to avert a looming balance of payments crisis. Foreign reserves held by the central bank dropped below $8 billion in late October, raising concerns about Islamabad’s ability to finance monthly import bills.

Beijing is one of Islamabad’s closest allies and a major investor, having loaned the South Asian nation around $4 billion in the fiscal year that ended in June, according to multiple reports. Chinese President Xi Jinping has also committed billions to building the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. A network of transport, energy, industrial and agricultural projects, the CPEC runs from the Pakistani city of Gwadar to the Chinese region of Xinjiang.

Beijing’s decision to hold off on more loans — its most recent one, worth $2 billion, came days following Khan’s election in July — may be tied to the trade spat with Washington, suggested Sahar Khan, a visiting research fellow at the Cato Institute. The world’s second largest economy has experienced tightened liquidity conditions recently amid currency declines and pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

“Islamabad wanted to get some degree of financial support from a bilateral partner so that it can bring down its ask of the IMF.” -Michael Kugelman, The Wilson Center
“China’s refusal to agree to anything specific during Khan’s trip is a bit of a setback,” said Michael Kugelman, deputy director of the Asia program and senior associate for South Asia at the Wilson Center. But given rising concerns in Pakistan about the CPEC, Xi’s government may be signaling “that it’s time for Pakistan to figure out how to make things work,” he added.

Abdul Razak Dawood, Pakistan’s cabinet member for commerce, industry and investment, told the Financial Times in September, that he believes CPEC should be put on hold for a year, adding that Chinese companies in the country held an undue advantage over local firms.

What now for Pakistan?
Even before Khan’s trip to China, his government was widely expected to ask the IMF for a bailout. But the cricketer-turned-politician, who delivered a keynote address at the China International Import Expo on Monday, had expressed a preference to seek funding from friendly countries first.

The Islamic Republic already received a $6 billion rescue package from Saudi Arabia last month — a deal seen by some as Riyadh’s way of keeping its friends close amid international pressure over the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, a critic of Riyadh who was murdered after entering the Saudi consulate in Istanbul on Oct. 2. Some U.S. lawmakers and Turkish officials have said Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman ordered the assassination, but the Kingdom denies those allegations.

“The Saudis have basically given $6 billion in assistance as a ‘thank you’ to the Pakistani government for standing by them during a time of crisis,” said Uzair Younus, director of South Asia practice at strategy firm Albright Stonebridge Group. “It is definitely linked to Khashoggi’s murder.”

“The deal likely came with an unstated expectation that Pakistan will need to reassert its allegiance to the Saudis in the Saudi Arabia-Iran rivalry, despite the new Pakistani government’s robust expressions of neutrality,” added Kugelman.

The Pakistani premier has already announced that his administration will mediate between Riyadh and Tehran in Yemen, “though how he plans to do that is unclear,” said the Cato Institute’s Khan.

Without more external financing, an IMF bailout for Pakistan now appears inevitable. Many economists argue that IMF loans create a debt trap for emerging economies but the same has also been said about Chinese investment.

“Islamabad wanted to get some degree of financial support from a bilateral partner so that it can bring down its ask of the IMF,” according to Kugelman. “The way Islamabad sees it, the less it needs to ask from the IMF, the more leverage it may have at the negotiating table with the Fund.”

The United Arab Emirates could also be a potential lifeline for Khan’s administration following reports that both countries held discussions about a deferred oil payment facility, Pakistani media reported in late October.

“Regardless of whether the Chinese or the Emiratis provide assistance, Pakistan will enter IMF negotiations for another bailout,” said Younus. “The size of this bailout will be determined by what assistance can be gained from the Chinese and the Emiratis.”

There’s still a chance Beijing could eventually come around.

show chaptersThe relationship between Chinese and Pakistani leadership remains nascent so “assistance will flow only after the Chinese believe that they have a strong partner in the PTI government that is ready and capable of pushing through more projects,” Younus said, referring to Khan’s ruling Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party.

Further complicating the matter is U.S. objection to an IMF bailout for Islamabad. Speaking to CNBC earlier this year, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said IMF funds would essentially bail out Chinese bondholders or China itself.

“Pakistan represents a litmus test of all future cases in which the IMF, United States, China, and any emerging market country are all involved,” analysts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies said in a recent note.

“Depending on how Beijing chooses to navigate Pakistan’s financial crisis, China may soon find itself responsible for rectifying the debt burdens of Zambia and many other [Belt and Road] countries.”

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Pakistan works to stop Asia Bibi leaving after blasphemy protests

Pakistan’s government has been accused of signing the “death warrant” of Asia Bibi after it said it would begin the process of preventing her leaving the country.

Bibi, a Christian farm labourer, was acquitted of blasphemy on Wednesday. She had spent eight years on death row after she drank from the same cup as a Muslim, prompting false allegations that she insulted the prophet Muhammad.

Bibi’s lawyer, Saif-ul-Mulook, has reportedly since fled the country amid fears for his life, telling AFP: “I need to stay alive as I still have to fight the legal battle for Asia Bibi.”

The ruling Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) administration signed an agreement with the anti-blasphemy group Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP) on Friday night, giving in to many of its demands in the face of massive, countrywide protests calling for Bibi to be put to death.

In a document signed by the PTI’s religious affairs minister and the TLP’s second-in-command, Pir Afzal Qadri, the government promised not to oppose a court petition to reverse Bibi’s release. It also pledged to work in the meantime to put her name on the exit control list (ECL) which would prevent her leaving the country.

“Placing Asia Bibi on the ECL is like signing her death warrant,” said Wilson Chowdhry of the British Pakistani Christian Association. Bibi, a mother of five, remains in the same prison where last month two men tried to kill her, although she has been shifted out of her windowless cell.

The agreement was a “historic capitulation”, tweeted analyst Mosharraf Zaidi. On Wednesday night, the prime minister and leader of the PTI, Imran Khan, defended the verdict acquitting Bibi and suggested the government would clamp down on protesters it termed “enemies of the state”.

The TLP has agreed to call off its protests, which saw thousands of Islamists blockade the country’s major motorways, burning cars and lorries and chanting that they were ready to die to protect the honour of the prophet.

Meanwhile, the government has promised to free any TLP workers arrested during the three-day protest. The group has only apologised for the damage it caused, the cost of which one government official estimated at $1.2bn (£900m).

Afzal Qadri told the Guardian “the government has almost accepted our maximum demands” and that if it backtracked “we can come [out on the streets] again”.

Islamists poured on to the streets after Friday prayers in a show of force that briefly unified extremist groups from the majority Barelvi sect, which the TLP springs from, and the more traditionally hardline Deobandis. Terrorist-linked outfits including Ahle Sunnat Wal Jamaat held rallies in Islamabad, alleging that the EU had pressurised the government into releasing Bibi.

While the protests were ongoing, unknown assailants stabbed Sami ul Haq – the leader of the Haqqania madrasa known as the “father of the Taliban” – to death in his own home.

The spokesperson for Pakistan’s army, Maj Gen Asif Ghafoor, said that the military’s chief condemned the assassination and expressed “grief and condolences” for the ul Haq family. Earlier in the day, Ghafoor released a statement about the protests which avoided criticising the TLP, despite its leaders calling for soldiers to mutiny.

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Sindh TV News interview with author in Washington DC

In a wide-ranging interview with Sindh TV News, Washington based journalist and author Nafisa Hoodbhoy says that the US and Pakistan are still not on the same page, despite diplomatic efforts to bridge the divide from both sides.

Interviewed by Sindh TV anchor Fayyaz Naiych in front of the US Capitol, the author says that the Trump administration has kept its consistent pressure on Pakistan to “stop giving refuge to Afghan Taliban,” whom they claim are still fighting NATO troops in Afghanistan.

The US has ramped the pressure by cutting off Coalition Support Funds to Pakistan – with the step taken in sync with US president Donald Trump’s harsh New Year tweet against Pakistan’s Afghan policy.

She speaks about how Pakistan’s economic difficulties have caused it to approach the International Monetary Fund for a bail out loan. In her words, this requires that Pakistan keep its good relations with the US, including allaying suspicion that it does not repay China’s loans through IMF aid.

The author speaks about how the US relationship with India has expanded to deeper economic investment, while its relationship with Pakistan still revolves around finding a final resolution to its longest war in Afghanistan.

The interview may be viewed at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GI5z8fW0b9k