Ashraf Ghani visit may mark new chapter in Afghan-Pakistan relations

Afghan president Ashraf Ghani in Islamabad (Credit: guardian.com)
Afghan president Ashraf Ghani in Islamabad (Credit: guardian.com)

Islamabad, Nov 14: It has been a long time since Pakistan’s diplomats and politicians have truly looked forward to a visit from the president of Afghanistan. Senior officials who dealt with Hamid Karzai still shudder at the memory of a deeply mercurial man whose attitude towards Pakistan veered wildly between occasional spasms of warmth and long periods of outright hostility.

So the arrival in Islamabad on Friday of Karzai’s successor Ashraf Ghani making his first visit to Pakistan has triggered an outbreak of optimism. “There is a real desire among both the military and civilians to start a new chapter with Ghani,” said one diplomat. “In the end they all just found Karzai too difficult.”

There will be extensive opportunities to woo the new president during his two-day visit, during which he will join the Pakistani prime minister, Nawaz Sharif, in watching a cricket match between teams representing the two nations.

In recent weeks Pakistan’s de facto foreign minister, its army chief and its spy master have all visited Kabul carrying what were described as messages of support and cooperation. The army offered to help train Afghan soldiers and provide equipment for an entire infantry brigade.

But in a region wracked by terrorism and insecurity, fixing the fraught relationship between the two countries could reap far bigger dividends than just military training and matériel. Most experts believe that if the two feuding neighbours were to bury the hatchet, the chances of increased stability in the region would increase dramatically.

It is thought that Pakistan – if it wished – could push the Taliban towards a peace process that the international community has struggled with for years.

Pakistan’s undoubted influence over the Taliban is due to the fact that the insurgent group enjoys safe haven inside the country. The security establishment, despite Pakistan nominally being a US ally, has long been accused of covertly assisting the Taliban and other insurgent groups – most recently in an report by the US defence department.

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Adding to the murk of the region’s so-called double game, in the last year Pakistan has publicly accused Afghanistan of also supporting terrorists. It says Kabul deliberately turned a blind eye to the presence of senior members of the Pakistani Taliban, an allied movement that aims to topple the Pakistani state, who are hiding in the Afghan borderlands.

Mushahid Hussain, a senator who takes a close interest in Afghan affairs, said: “With ‘fighting fatigue’ on either side of the Durand line [the disputed border between the two countries], both countries feel the need to grasp this new opportunity.”

Afghanistan has never accepted the Durand line, which in 1893 gave swaths of Afghan territory to the British empire – land that now lies inside Pakistan. The issue has soured relations ever since: Afghanistan tried to block Pakistan’s admission to the United Nations in 1947, and in the 1970s Kabul was particularly vocal in claiming its lost territory. That prompted Pakistan to train and arm anti-government Islamist groups in Afghanistan for the first time, a tactic that was later greatly increased in the 1980s and 1990s.

Even in recent years when there has been little serious discussion about redrawing borders, Islamabad has been repeatedly angered by Karzai’s attempts to present himself as a leader of Pakistani Pashtuns, the ethnic group that predominates in Afghanistan.

Pakistan’s worries are heightened by its anxiety that arch-enemy India is attempting to encircle it through its extensive diplomatic and development presence in Afghanistan.

Pakistan’s past attempts to get Afghanistan to heed its concerns triggered some of Karzai’s most bitter outbursts against a country that is deeply unpopular with ordinary Afghans.

Martine van Bijlert, an expert at the Afghanistan Analysts Network, said: “Ghani can be quite temperamental himself and also has a feel for populism. He may play this coolly and diplomatically, or much more emotionally.”

Despite the deep roots of an old conflict, Hussain said he was optimistic that things could improve, not least because China – Pakistan’s closest ally – is increasingly anxious for the decade-long insurgencies in Afghanistan and Pakistan to end. Beijing is worried about the threat from some of its own Islamist militants from the western province of Xinjiang currently fighting in the borderlands straddling the Durand line.

Moreover, Pakistan and Afghanistan are both faced with a fundamental new reality as the US withdraws troops from the region, said Hussain. “Islamabad and Kabul now realise that regional countries will have to largely fend for themselves, no longer banking on distant godfathers in Washington to pull their chestnuts out of the fire.”

Pakistani army chief’s trip to U.S. likely to be marked by greater optimism, trust

Pak Army chief Raheel Sharif (Credit: Khaama.com)
Pak Army chief Raheel Sharif (Credit: Khaama.com)

ISLAMABAD, Nov 14 — The last time a Pakistani army chief visited Washington, he got an earful from U.S. leaders worried that he was not a reliable partner in efforts to combat militant groups responsible for devastating attacks in Afghanistan.

Four years later, Pakistan’s newest military chief, Gen. Raheel Sharif, is scheduled to arrive in Washington this weekend on his first official U.S. visit. And this time, the most powerful man in Pakistan is expected to be greeted with far less skepticism.

Since becoming army chief a year ago, Sharif has overseen a broad military campaign against Islamist extremists in northwestern Pakistan. Although it could take months or years to fully assess its effectiveness, U.S. officials say the operation has boosted their confidence in Pakistan’s commitment to combating terrorist groups operating within its borders.

Last week, Lt. Gen. Joseph Anderson, a senior commander of U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan, told reporters that the Haqqani network — a Pakistan-based Afghan insurgent group — is now “fractured.”

“That’s based pretty much on the Pakistan ops in North Waziristan this entire summer-fall,” Anderson said in a video conference from the Afghan capital. “That has very much disrupted their efforts here and has caused them to be less effective in terms of their ability to pull off an attack here in Kabul.”

Although other U.S. officials are more guarded in their assessments, Anderson’s remarks are helping to set the tone for Sharif’s visit. The week-long trip also coincides with growing optimism that relations among the United States, Pakistan and Afghanistan are improving now that Hamid Karzai is no longer the Afghan president.

“Both sides are aware of this historical moment and are taking steps to seize this moment,” U.S. Ambassador Richard G. Olson said in a speech Wednesday in Islamabad.

On Friday, Afghanistan’s new president, Ashraf Ghani, traveled to Islamabad and met with Raheel Sharif. Ghani also plans talks with Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, who is not related to the general, over the weekend. The Pakistani leader plans to take Ghani to a cricket match.

For many analysts, the two visits signal that the space for meaningful engagement on counterterrorism issues is expanding with a new power-sharing government in place in Afghanistan.

Karzai, who had been Afghanistan’s only leader since shortly after U.S.-backed forces ousted the Taliban from power in 2001, was deeply skeptical of Pakistan and widely considered it the root of many of Afghanistan’s woes. He also repeatedly clashed with the Obama administration, setting limits on U.S. military operations and refusing to allow a residual American troop presence after the NATO mission in Afghanistan ends this year.

But Ghani, within days of taking office, signed an agreement that will keep about 9,800 U.S. troops in Afghanistan next year.

Last month, in a sign of thawing relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan, the two nations agreed to jointly import power from Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, Olson noted. Ghani also recently announced that he is reevaluating Karzai’s efforts to buy weapons from India for the Afghan army. The new president’s move was widely interpreted as an olive branch to Pakistan, which has fought three major wars with India since 1947.

Salman Zaidi, a military and political expert at the Islamabad-based Jinnah Institute, said there appears to be a genuine effort to put past tensions “back in the box.”

“There is still a lot of debris lying around [in the relationships] from the last 10 years, both in terms of Pakistan-U.S. ties and Pakistan-Afghanistan, but the attempt is now there,” Zaidi said. “Karzai was a mercurial personality, and everybody found it difficult to deal with him.”

For years, Pakistani military and intelligence officials have been accused of secretly providing support to some militant groups, including the Haqqani network, thwarting U.S. efforts to contain the flow of fighters and weapons from Pakistan into Afghanistan.

In widely reported remarks in 2011, Adm. Mike Mullen, then chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee that the Haqqanis were operating “with impunity” in Pakistan and were relying on state support.

Although Gen. Ashfaq Kayani, Pakistan’s army chief at the time, oversaw two military operations in the Swat Valley and another in South Waziristan, he resisted calls to invade North Waziristan, which had become a haven not only for the Pakistani Taliban but also for al-Qaeda and the Haqqani network.

But in June, Raheel Sharif ordered the military into North Waziristan. Since then, Pakistani officials say, more than 1,200 terrorists have been killed or captured. Seventy Pakistani soldiers also have been killed.

Last month, in a move that surprised many analysts, the army chief expanded the operation to the Khyber Agency, also in Pakistan’s unruly tribal areas.

“This time, the army is not letting up,” said Javed Ashraf Qazi, a retired general and former head of Pakistan’s spy agency. “The air force, the gunship helicopters hit them wherever they are, and the army is slowly and gradually moving up into the mountains to their last refuges.”

Still, Pakistan’s military has not released the names of any high-value terrorists killed in the operation. And Anderson’s comments notwithstanding, many U.S. officials remain unconvinced that Pakistan’s military is poised to deliver a lasting blow to the Haqqani network, which has carried out several attacks on coalition forces in Afghanistan.

A senior U.S. official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter, said the military offensive has “disrupted” but “not damaged” the Haqqanis. Still, the official said ties between the United States and Pakistan have greatly improved since the 2011 U.S. operation that killed Osama bin Laden in Pakistan.

“Pakistan now has substantial control over their whole territory — they have expended a lot on this operation, and we have to give them credit,” the official said. “We also have to hold them to their repeated commitment not to allow [the Haqqani network] to operate from Pakistan.”

Here in Islamabad, analysts expect Raheel Sharif to quickly forge a productive relationship with his U.S. counterparts.

Imtiaz Gul, executive director of the Islamabad-based Center for Research and Security Studies, said Sharif is known to be “assertive, aggressive” and outspoken. Kayani, who served as the military chief from late 2007 until last November, was known to be reserved and often said little during meetings.

“I think [Pentagon leaders] will feel quite at home with him, because his style is more the American style,” Qazi said of Sharif. “But actions speak louder than words, and, so far, he is giving them action.”

In Shift, Pakistanis Fleeing War Flow Into Beleaguered Afghanistan

GULAN CAMP, Afghanistan (Nov 15) — Through three decades of war, waves of Afghans have fled their homes along the eastern border areas, many of them seeking shelter in the Pakistani tribal regions next door.

Last summer another wave of refugees surged through the area. But in a reversal, it is Pakistanis, not Afghans, who are fleeing war at home.

“There was fighting everywhere,” said Sadamullah, a laborer who fled with his family last month from Dattakhel, a district in Pakistan’s tribal areas. “There was shelling, and military forces were firing mortars on our villages. They carried out an operation in our area, and a woman was killed by them.”

Mr. Sadamullah, who like many tribesmen here has only one name, was speaking about the Pakistani military’s continuing offensive against Islamist militants in the North Waziristan region. The military has been clearing territory in the region since June, forcing an exodus of at least 1.5 million residents. As many as 250,000 of them have since crossed the border into Afghanistan, officials say.

The tribal communities on both sides of the border are Pashtun, and many of the refugees from the Pakistani side have found shelter with relatives or sympathetic families on the Afghan side, mostly in Khost and Paktika Provinces. In some cases, refugees have been able to rent or borrow a patch of land or a walled compound for their families and some livestock.

But the poorest — about 3,000 families, according to the United Nations refugee agency — are perched in Gulan Camp, a stretch of rough stones and reed bushes in the Gorbuz district of Khost, just a few miles from the border.

Canvas tents spread out toward the brown crags of the horizon. Women are cloistered behind flimsy screens, and children, who make up 65 percent of the camp population, dart in and out under the canvas flaps. The men have started building mud walls around the tents in an attempt to give better protection against the coming winter.

Most families came on foot, and often fled in haste with few belongings. Many tell the same story: a public warning by the Pakistani Army giving them three days to leave their homes, desperate negotiations as elders tried to win permission for civilians to stay, and then the terror of the artillery and aerial bombardments of their villages.

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“We left everything — hens, ducks, carpets,” said a widow, Shakila Saidgi, who fled her village in June. “We slept on the way in the mountains.”

She said that Pakistani forces began bombarding her village in Waziristan at four in the morning, striking the mosque where the men were gathered for dawn prayer. Her nephew was among the wounded. “When the sun rose, we left,” she said.

Refugees arriving in recent days said the five-month-old operation was continuing and even expanding. They told of Pakistani jets bombing villages and the army firing artillery barrages.

“The fighting was between the Taliban and the government, but our villages were bombarded and that’s why the people got fed up and left the area,” said Musa Kalim Wazir, a shepherd from Tank village in Dattakhel district. People did not dare to return to their homes, because whenever the army came under attack by insurgents it responded by bombarding nearby villages, he said.

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Afghan officials, still grappling with a host of problems of their own, not least a continuing insurgency and thousands of internally displaced, now face an added burden of a quarter of a million refugees from Pakistan whose presence is turning into a long-term prospect.

“Winter is already here and all of the refugees are facing a shortage of assistance,” said Muhammad Akbar Zadran, the governor of Gurbaz district. “A group of refugees came to my office, and they told me that different diseases were spreading among their children. If they don’t get urgent treatment then it is possible that in coming days we will witness a precarious situation.”

He said: “All of the refugees have many problems; they have come here with just the clothes on their backs, and they left everything behind. If the government and people don’t respond to their needs then it will be a great problem.”

Afghanistan’s latest trial comes amid growing refugee crises around the world and a global shortage of humanitarian funding. The United Nations appealed for $25 million to assist the Pakistani refugees through the end of the year, but assistance organizations have gathered only about $10 million, said Bo Schack, representative in Afghanistan for the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees.

“There are so many other humanitarian priorities, and having refugees inside Afghanistan arriving from another country was not what anybody really expected,” he said in a telephone interview. “But this time we are seeing very significant numbers crossing the border in one go.”

“It may end up being another protracted kind of situation which clearly everybody would like to avoid,” he added.

For many of the refugees, Afghanistan represents a relief not only from bombardment but from the draconian rule of the Pakistani Taliban and foreign Islamist fighters. In North Waziristan, the militant groups had largely forced out any civilian or tribal leadership, in a brutal reign that left much of the local population alienated and frightened.

“If you did not help the Taliban or the foreigners, you were killed,” said Mushtaq, a refugee who goes by only one name.

Another refugee, who did not want his name used because he was afraid of reprisal, described years of hell as the militants took firmer hold in North Waziristan.

“They started harassing people a lot, and people became disenchanted,” he said. “Then they started killing people and accusing them of spying for the government. They were trying to terrify the people. They used to wear masks on their faces and they would drag out anyone they wanted and take him to their base.” The fear led some to join the militants for protection. “They created an environment so they could easily attract people,” the refugee said. “If someone joined them they would become powerful. Some of my relatives joined them.”

In that environment, much of the population supported the idea of a military offensive. Yet few said they trusted the Pakistani military, and their fears were borne out when they saw the militants escape ahead of the offensive and the bombardment. “The operation itself is right, but the way they conduct it is wrong, and it is harming me more than the fighters,” Umar Khan, a tribal elder who has represented refugees in meetings with Afghan officials, said in July. “It damaged my house, my village and my land. And I lost everything.”

By the end of October, he said he did not believe government figures of hundreds of Taliban killed. But he warned that the military was still killing civilians in the operation. “Waziristan has been completely destroyed by the military forces,” he said.

Afghans have long accused Pakistan of sheltering militants seeking to kill government and international forces in Afghanistan. Now, the concern is that some of those militants are still able to operate, and will seek to infiltrate the refugees.

Refugees have complained since the start that many militants escaped ahead of them and officials say some have settled on the Afghan side of the border. The issue has been a point of tension between the Afghan and Pakistani governments. “If our government and the international community don’t help these people on time,” Mr. Zadran warned, “then someone — in particular the Taliban — will get the chance to influence these people.”

Haris Kakar contributed reporting from Khost Province, Afghanistan.

Indian Muslims Lose Hope in National Secular Party

Indian Voters (Credit: nytimes.com)
Indian Voters
(Credit: nytimes.com)

MUMBAI, India — When he set out on a muggy morning in mid-October to vote in the Maharashtra State legislative elections, Zubair Azmi intended to cast his ballot, as usual, for the Indian National Congress, the party that has promised for years to protect Muslims like him.

But as he walked the streets of Byculla, a once-affluent South Mumbai neighborhood fallen on tougher times, Mr. Azmi sensed a shift in the tide. At every street corner, young Muslim men were beseeching passers-by to back a new political force in the state: the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen, known as the M.I.M. And kites, the party’s symbol, seemed to be everywhere.

“Young men in Byculla were speaking in one voice,” said Mr. Azmi, who heads a group promoting Urdu language and culture.

He was already disenchanted with Congress, whose local leaders paid little attention to the neighborhood or its people. By the time he got to his polling place, he said, he had changed his mind, and voted for the M.I.M.

With a stridently right-wing Hindu nationalist group, the Bharatiya Janata Party, sweeping to victory after winning elections across India, the delicate balance between the country’s religious and ethnic minorities, and especially its Muslims, and the majority Hindu population is shifting. Their faith in the avowedly secular Congress party, which ruled India for decades, is dwindling, and the emergence of a strong Muslim party in Maharashtra suggests a possible consequence.

The Bharatiya Janata Party, also known as B.J.P., leadership’s penchant for making provocative remarks and stoking communal tensions, combined with the trend away from Congress is leaving Indian politics more polarized on sectarian lines, as the election results in Maharashtra illustrated. The B.J.P. won overall, but M.I.M., making its first foray into the state with a field of mostly novice candidates, won two seats, including Byculla, whose population is 40 percent Muslim.

Waris Pathan, a criminal defense lawyer who grew up in the neighborhood, decided to join the party and be its candidate the day before the deadline for nominations. Despite his inexperience, after just 12 days of campaigning he managed to beat the Congress incumbent, Madhu Chavan, in a close race.

“The so-called secular parties took the votes of Muslim people, but they never did anything for their betterment,” Mr. Pathan said in an interview in his South Mumbai office. “We want to be their voice in the assembly.”

The party he joined has its roots in an organization begun in the 1920s to safeguard Muslim interests in Hyderabad, a princely state that had a mainly Hindu population but, in those days, a Muslim prince and ruling class. The group became a political party in 1959, and its leaders these days are known for practicing an aggressive brand of communal politics, just as some B.J.P. leaders are. Until now, the party’s influence was confined to its home state Andhra Pradesh, while Muslims in most parts of the country pegged their hopes to the Congress.

Akbaruddin Owaisi, a party leader and fiery orator known for his vitriolic speeches, has been charged several times with hate speech over remarks denigrating Hindu gods and inciting violence. He was arrested last year on charges of inciting communal enmity, sedition and criminal conspiracy for speeches he made in Andhra Pradesh, where he was quoted as saying that India’s Muslims “can take care of” the country’s Hindu majority “if the police stay away for 15 minutes.” In a speech in Mumbai before the election, he accused Hindus of similar sentiments: “They want to finish off Muslims, and end secularism,” he said, according to The Indian Express. His speeches, posted on YouTube, were very popular in Byculla before the election.

“The spirits of the Muslim youth were very diminished” after Narendra Modi led the B.J.P. to national victory and became prime minister in May, said Mr. Azmi, the Byculla resident. “His speeches reflected what was going on in their minds and gave them hope.”

Voters in the neighborhood were ready for the message after complaining for years about neglect by the Congress’s political establishment.

“People were angry,” said Mohammad Zahid Khan, 50, who lives in Byculla and runs a perfume store. “In the last 15 years, the Congress has not done anything.” He added that the incumbent, Mr. Chavan, would have won “if they had taken even a little care of the Muslims of this area.”

Most voters felt that no other secular party had a chance of winning, Mr. Khan said, and they did not want to waste their vote, so they turned to sectarian parties.

Many felt that the rise of the B.J.P. had caused Muslims to feel threatened. “We are insulted and humiliated,” said Imran Khan, a kite seller who lives in Byculla. “The insecurity, the fearmongering, is growing. We need to make our voice heard.”

Muslims make up about 13 percent of the national population, but won only 4 percent of the seats in the new Parliament, the smallest share since Indian independence. Analysts said that in recent times, mainstream political parties have been putting fewer minority candidates on their tickets because of concerns that they will not be able to win, producing alienation.

“When a minority community withdraws from the broad secular parties and decides to go it alone, that is an unhealthy sign for democracy on the whole,” said Eswaran Sridharan, a political scientist and the academic director of the University of Pennsylvania Institute for the Advanced Study of India in New Delhi. “It signals that a significant section of society is feeling excluded from political representation.”

Though M.I.M. represents only a small slice of India’s Muslims so far, “it is part of a larger trend of greater assertiveness of religious identity in public life in India,” said Rochana Bajpai, senior lecturer in politics at the School of Oriental and African Studies in London. “Its rise suggests that there is an urgent need to rebuild Indian models of secularism and multiculturalism.”

Adnan Farooqui, an assistant professor of political science at Jamia Millia Islamia, a New Delhi university, said M.I.M.’s agenda “is reactionary at its core,” and he compared the group with right-wing Hindu parties that have practiced violent communal politics for years. “It promises to deliver, as far any physical threat to the community is concerned, much like the Shiva Sena,” Mr. Farooqui said.

However, Mr. Pathan, the newly elected M.I.M. legislator, insisted that his party’s ideology was wholly secular and that its agenda was the welfare of all minorities, not just Muslims. He said his goals were to reopen shuttered schools, provide medical facilities to the needy and provide legal aid to the many young Muslim men who have been detained without trial in terrorism-related cases.

“We are not against any community, but we are certainly against the ideology of certain communal parties,” Mr. Pathan said, his voice soft but strained. “If anybody voices communal sentiments against any minority, we are not going to take it lightly. We are replying. That does not make us communal — we are just defending ourselves.”

US Senior Advisor to Pakistan is under FBI Investigation

Robin Raphael (Credit: dailytimes.com.pk)
Robin Raphael
(Credit: dailytimes.com.pk)

Washington DC, Nov. 6: A veteran State Department diplomat and longtime Pakistan expert is under federal investigation as part of a counterintelligence probe and has had her security clearances withdrawn, according to U.S. officials.

The FBI searched the Northwest Washington home of Robin L. Raphel last month, and her State Department office was also examined and sealed, officials said. Raphel, a fixture in Washington’s diplomatic and think-tank circles, was placed on administrative leave last month, and her contract with the State Department was allowed to expire this week.

Two U.S. officials described the investigation as a counterintelligence matter, which typically involves allegations of spying on behalf of foreign governments. The exact nature of the investigation involving Raphel remains unclear. She has not been charged.

A spokesman for Raphel said she was cooperating with investigators but has not been told the “scope or nature or that she is the target” of any probe.

U.S. officials spoke on the condition of anonymity because the investigation is ongoing. Spokesmen with the FBI and the Justice Department’s National Security Division declined to comment.

Details of federal counterintelligence investigations are typically closely held and the cases can span years. Although Raphel has spent much of her career on Pakistan issues, it was unknown whether the investigation, being run by the FBI’s Washington Field Office, was related to her work with that country.

“We are aware of this law enforcement matter,” State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki said. “The State Department has been cooperating with our law enforcement colleagues.”

“She is no longer employed by the State Department,” Psaki said.

Raphel did not respond to attempts to reach her by phone and e-mail. Her daughter also declined to comment, instead referring questions to a family spokesman.

The spokesman, Andrew Rice, said Raphel’s security clearances were put on hold last month and that she is no longer employed by the State Department.

“She is aware and can confirm there is some kind of investigation,” he said.

Rice declined to say whether Raphel had hired a lawyer and refused to answer questions about her whereabouts.

U.S. officials acknowledged that the FBI conducted a search at Raphel’s home Oct. 21 but would not provide details of the search. Agents removed bags and boxes from the home, but it is not clear what was seized there or at her office.

At the State Department, Raphel’s office remained dark and locked Thursday.

At the time of the raid, Raphel was a senior adviser on Pakistan for the office of the special representative on Afghanistan and Pakistan. In that job, she was chiefly responsible for administering nonmilitary aid such as U.S. economic grants and incentives.

The 67-year-old longtime diplomat was among the U.S. government’s most senior advisers on Pakistan and South Asian issues. She is a former assistant secretary of state for South Asia and a former ambassador to Tunisia. At the time of the FBI search of her house, she had retired from the Foreign Service but was working for the State Department on renewable, limited contracts that depended in part on her security clearances.

As a prominent woman among a generation of mostly male diplomats and the former wife of a storied U.S. ambassador, Arnold Raphel, she was among the most recognizable State Department officials and a well-liked and often outspoken career diplomat.

Arnold Raphel was U.S. ambassador to Pakistan when he was killed aboard a plane carrying then-Pakistani President Mohammed Zia ul-Haq in 1988. The cause of the mysterious plane crash has never been proved, but the crash is widely assumed to have been an assassination of the military dictator.

Robin Raphel was divorced from Arnold Raphel when he died. She was then a State Department political officer serving in South Africa but had spent earlier portions of her career in Pakistan. She was also posted in Washington, Britain, India and elsewhere. In 1993, then-President Bill Clinton named her as the first assistant secretary of state for South and Central Asian affairs.

Raphel began her government career as a CIA analyst, according to a State Department biography. She served 30 years in the Foreign Service and retired from the State Department in 2005. She returned to the State Department in 2009 to work as an adviser to Richard Holbrooke, who had been named by then-Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton to the new post of special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Prior to returning to the State Department, Raphel worked as a lobbyist for Cassidy & Associates, a Washington-based government relations firm. She represented Pakistan, Equatorial Guinea and Iraq’s Kurdistan Regional Government, according to federal disclosure forms.

A spokesman for Cassidy said the firm had not been contacted by the U.S. government about Raphel and was unaware of any investigation related to its former employee.

Espionage cases involving State Department officials are relatively rare. In the last major case, a former State Department official, Walter Kendall Myers, was sentenced in 2010 to life in prison after he and his wife, Gwendolyn Steingraber Myers, were convicted on charges of spying for Cuba over three decades. She received nearly seven years in prison.

The pair provided “highly classified U.S. national defense information” to Cuba, according to the Justice Department.

Missy Ryan and Julie Tate contributed to this report.

Europe’s Muslims Feel Under Siege

A stereotyed Danish Muslim (Credit washingtonpost.com)COPENHAGEN, Nov 1 — On a continent where Muslim leaders are decrying a surge in discrimination and aggression, Alisiv Ceran is the terrorist who wasn’t.

The 21-year-old student at the University of Copenhagen recently hopped on a commuter train to this stately Scandinavian city, his bag bulging with a computer printer. Feeling jittery about a morning exam, he anxiously buried his nose in a textbook: “The United States After 9/11.”

A fellow passenger who reported him to police, however, saw only a bearded Muslim toting a mysterious bag and a how-to book on terror. Frantic Danish authorities launched a citywide manhunt after getting the tip. Ceran’s face — captured by closed-circuit cameras — was flashed across the Internet and national television, terrifying family and friends who feared he might be arrested or shot on sight.

“It was the first time I ever saw my father cry, he was so worried about me,” said Ceran, who called police when he saw himself in the news, then hid in a university bathroom until they arrived. “I think what happened to me shows that fear of Islam is growing here. Everybody thinks we’re all terrorists.”

Ceran’s ordeal is a sign of the times in Europe, where Muslims are facing what some community leaders are comparing to the atmosphere in the United States following the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.

Then, fears were linked to al-Qaeda. Today, they are tied to the Islamic State — and, more specifically, to the hundreds of Muslim youths from Europe who have streamed into Syria and Iraq to fight. Though dozens of Americans are believed to have signed up, far more — at least 3,000 — are estimated to have come from Europe, according to the Soufan Group, a New York-based intelligence firm.

One French returnee staged a lethal attack in Belgium last year. After more alleged terror plots were recently disrupted in Norway and Britain, concern over the very real risk posed by homegrown militants is now building to a crescendo among European politicians, the media and the public.

“It’s a clash of civilizations,” said Marie Krarup, a prominent lawmaker from the Danish People’s Party, the nation’s third-largest political force. “Islam is violence. Moderate Muslims are not the problem, but even they can become extreme over time. In Islam, it is okay to beat your wife. It is okay to kill those who are not Muslims. This is the problem we have.”

Muslim leaders point to a string of high-profile incidents and a renewed push for laws restricting Islamic practices such as circumcision that suggest those fears are crossing the line into intolerance.

In Germany, a protest against Islamic fundamentalism in Cologne last Sunday turned violent when thousands of demonstrators yelling “foreigners out” clashed with police, leaving dozens injured.

Muslim leaders also cite a string of recent incidents in Germany, ranging from insults of veiled women on the streets to a Molotov cocktail thrown at a mosque in late August.

In Britain, Mayor Boris Johnson was recently quoted as saying “thousands” of Londoners are now under surveillance as possible terror suspects. In Paris last week, a woman in Islamic garb that obscured her face was unceremoniously ejected from a performance of La Traviata at the Opéra Bastille. Although France passed a ban on the wearing of full Muslim veils in public in 2010, the incident involved a rare enforcement of the law by private management who did not take the necessary legal step of calling police first.

Even moderate Muslims say they are increasingly coming under fire, particularly in the European media. A recent commentary in Germany’s Bild tabloid, for instance, condemned the “disproportionate crime rate among adolescents with Muslim backgrounds” as well as the faith’s “homicidal contempt for women and homosexuals.”

“This is the hour when critics of Islam are engaging in unchecked Muslim-bashing,” said Ali Kizilkaya, chairman of the Islamic Council of Germany.

The current mood, Muslim leaders say, is less a sudden shift than a worsening of a climate that had already been eroding for years.

After the horrific transit bombings that killed hundreds in Madrid and London in the mid-2000s, Muslims in Europe faced increased pressure and scrutiny. The Islamic community has been increasingly challenged for the inability — or unwillingness — of many Muslim immigrants and their children to assimilate into progressive European societies. In recent years, France and Belgium passed laws banning full Muslim veils. Switzerland barred the construction of new mosque minarets.

In Britain, negative sentiments spiked last May after the slaying of a British Army soldier in London by two homegrown radicals. After the killing, Asimah Sheikh, 36, a mother of two who helps out at her brother’s Islamic clothes shop in northwest London, said the tires were slashed on her car and “go back home” was written on the windshield. This year, she said, the rise of the Islamic State — a group known for beheadings, crucifixions and mass executions — has again worsened the climate.

“They call me ‘Batman’; they call me ‘jihadi.’ They ask, ‘What have you got hiding under that scarf?’ ” she said.

Few countries in the region have seen a fiercer debate over Islam than here in Denmark, which became the target of Muslim rage in 2006 after the publication of satirical caricatures depicting the prophet Muhammad in a Danish newspaper. More recently, nearly 100 mostly young Muslims have left Denmark to fight in Syria and Iraq.

Progressives have hailed a program in one city — Aarhus — that is trying to aid returning jihadis by finding them jobs and places in school. But nationwide, Muslim leaders and progressive Danish politicians say tensions are rising amid an increasingly toxic public debate over Islam itself.

Earlier this year, Denmark set new curbs on the Muslim tradition of halal slaughter, and national lawmakers are now debating a law that could set new limits on religious circumcision, a move that could impact Muslims and Jews alike. Some politicians are calling for a new ban on immigration from Muslim countries.

Some young Muslims like Ceran — an English and Mandarin major who works as a mentor for underprivileged youths and is the son of Turkish immigrants to Denmark — are beginning to contemplate whether it’s wise to stay.

“The stigma against Muslims is just getting worse, and I have considered moving across the border to Sweden,” he said. “I feel that here, they are saying that integration means forgetting your religious values. I don’t agree with that.”

Stephanie Kirchner in Berlin and Karla Adam in London contributed to this report

Mortenson returns to Afghanistan, trying to move past his ‘Three Cups of Tea’ disgrace

Greg Mortenson (Credit rferl.org)MOHAMMAD AGHA, Afghanistan Oct 12 — Greg Mortenson is hurtling down the dusty back roads of eastern Afghanistan, hoping the Taliban won’t attack his Toyota 4Runner. There are no police checkpoints, no American troops and no sign of any foreign development projects — including his own.

A few years ago, when the author of “Three Cups of Tea” was one of the world’s most beloved activists, there would have been a host of American officials waiting for him. But now, with his reputation in a shambles, he has slipped back into Afghanistan quietly.

When he arrives at an unmarked blue gate in a mud wall, his driver stops. Inside, Mortenson says, lies “the other side of the story” — hundreds of Afghan girls getting an education, thanks to him.

Except no one is answering the door. The place looks abandoned.

“Maybe everyone is at a wedding,” he says with a forced laugh. He squirms in his seat.

Mortenson won fame as a humanitarian who built hundreds of schools in Afghanistan. Four-star U.S. generals sought his advice on Afghan tribal dynamics. President Obama donated $100,000 of his Nobel Prize winnings to Mortenson’s charity. Former president Bill Clinton praised him. Four million people bought his book.

Many of his former advocates now see him as a fraud.

A 2012 investigation into his charity, the Central Asia Institute, found that he spent millions in donations on his expenses, including travel and clothing. His book turned out to contain large-scale fabrications. Some of the schools he boasted of had no students. Some appeared not to have been built at all.

Now, Mortenson is trying to start over, to emerge from years of pain and disgrace. His donations have crashed. His co-author committed suicide by kneeling in front of a train. His daughter tried to take her life. He almost died of heart failure.

Mortenson, 56, is wearing Afghan clothing — a flowing tunic and flat wool cap. He sits in the truck on this sunny morning, staring at the blue gate, which remains closed. He is tapping his foot. The minutes pass slowly.

Then the gate opens.

The girls are everywhere, skittering near the front steps of the school, in blue uniforms and white headscarves. Mortenson’s face lights up. He bounds from the SUV and embraces the male teachers, putting his hand on their hearts, a sign of respect here. He shakes the hands of the little girls.

“This is where I belong,” he says.

Return to public life

In Afghanistan, Mortenson is still “Mr. Greg,” the man who can transform a village of illiterate farmers by writing a check. Word of his disgrace barely arrived here.

He has come back to Afghanistan several times since his fall from grace, quietly visiting schools. But on a trip this summer, he invited a reporter to spend a few days with him. It was a first step in Mortenson’s return to public life — one he hardly seems ready for.

He is a man who struggles to find the right words. Back when he was appearing on TV and giving speeches, he had to train himself to project confidence, to memorize snappy one-liners about girls’ education.

Today, Mortenson prefers to regard his celebrity as an accident.

“Americans want heroes to believe in. Once the machine kicks in, you can be pretty much anyone, and people will flock to you,” Mortenson had said as his truck bounced along the 20-mile road between Kabul and the girls’ school, in Logar province.

Still, he had embraced his fame. He had long been a misfit: a white kid in Tanzania, the son of Lutheran missionaries, then a teenager who got beaten up when the family returned to Minnesota and he identified himself as African. Then, he was a traveling nurse in South Dakota and Indianapolis who struggled to put down roots.

He aspired to do great work but was never the best at anything. Then, suddenly, the world was praising him as the man deified in “Three Cups of Tea,” a book carefully, even deceptively, crafted to make Mortenson look heroic.

For an America at war in faraway Afghanistan, he had at least some credibility. He had traveled for years in Pakistan and Afghanistan, and built his first school in rural Pakistan in 1996. When the book came out a decade later, his insights were marketable.

For U.S. generals trying to apply counterinsurgency theory, he shuttled tribal elders from remote villages to Kabul. For suburban American book clubs, he explained: “War will ultimately be won with books, not with bombs.” The phrase didn’t even resonate with him — he knew of plenty of hardened militants who would never allow a secular school in their village — but it somehow seemed to with everyone else.

Donations shot to nearly $23 million in 2010. And then came the downfall. In 2011, the television show “60 Minutes” said the book was largely fabricated and that he was taking money from his charity.

Jon Krakauer, whose e-book “Three Cups of Deceit” remains the most authoritative account of Mortenson’s misdeeds, accused him of lying about practically everything — “the noble deeds he has done, the risks he has taken, the people he has met, the number of schools he has built.”

Recounting his mistakes

Three years later, sitting in the garden of his run-down Kabul hotel, Mortenson admits some mistakes. Take his account in “Three Cups of Tea” of how he found his cause. An amateur mountaineer, he was descending Pakistan’s famed K2 peak in 1993. He was weak and delirious, the book recounts, when he stumbled into a village called Korphe. The book describes how the locals took him in and how he developed a “routine” in the village, where he was deeply moved by the poverty.

Now, Mortenson says, he was only in Korphe for a few hours. His relationships with the villagers, he says, developed in subsequent visits.

“It was obviously a lie,” he said. “I stand by the story, but there were compressions and omissions.”

He said that he didn’t pay close attention to the writing of the book, thinking of it mostly as a vehicle for raising awareness and donations. The book was largely penned by his co-author, David Oliver Relin.

Then there is the question of how many schools Mortenson built. When he was asked for statistics, he says, he would sometimes guess.

“It was misleading,” he said.

In truth, even the U.S. military has difficulty keeping track of how many of the schools it built are still operating. Sometimes, Mortenson just says what he thinks will make people happy — at least that’s what his therapist told him.

Mortenson acknowledges that the Central Asia Institute (CAI), which he founded in 1996, kept poor records.

“Myopic passion,” his wife, Tara Bishop, called it — explaining how her husband’s devotion to his cause outstripped his management abilities.

For all his admissions, Mortenson hasn’t given up on the image of himself as an altruist. After meeting a reporter, he began forwarding old e-mails from Hollywood figures.

“I very much enjoyed our meeting and look forward to following your travels,” actor Brad Pitt wrote in 2010.

“You have already turned the daunting and the impossible into reality,” a film producer wrote in 2008.

“I turned all film offers down, even when the offers went high,” Mortenson said in an e-mail.

Financial issues revealed

The biggest indictment of Mortenson is his financial mismanagement — specifically his use of CAI donations to fund speaking tours in which he promoted “Three Cups” and a sequel, “Stones into Schools.” Mortenson was paid tens of thousands of dollars per speech in addition to receiving royalties from book sales. In many cases, he even charged his charity for expenses covered by other sponsors.

In 2012, the attorney general’s office in Montana, where he lives, ordered him to return more than $1 million to the charity, which he paid from his book profits. He was forced to step down as a voting member of CAI’s board of directors. Mortenson is still a senior staff member, earning more than $150,000 a year.

But even now, trying to calculate his income and the amount he donated to CAI over the years, Mortenson gets lost in a series of incomprehensible Excel spreadsheets. Trying to explain them to a reporter, he attempts to do the arithmetic, gets it wrong and starts all over.

“I suck as an administrator,” he said. “The book was the best thing we had. By promoting the book, I was bringing in money to CAI.”

There is an alternative explanation. For years, employees of the charity had badgered him to document his expenses and improve management practices. “He resisted and/or ignored them,” the attorney general’s report said.

Krakauer, writing recently for Medium.com, described Mortenson as a natural con artist.

“Mortenson’s success at dodging accountability can be explained in part by the humble, shambling Gandhi-like persona he’s manufactured for public consumption,” he wrote.

Success despite scandal

Yet Mortenson can’t just be dismissed as a greedy opportunist. He still takes considerable risks to see his schools. Because of security threats, many foreign aid workers based in Kabul rarely visit their projects.

Despite all of his mistakes, CAI is still one of the largest education nonprofits in South and Central Asia, with thousands of children attending his schools, most of them girls. That’s partly due to the amount of money Mortenson was able to raise. But his charity also managed to forge unusually strong bonds with the rural communities where he built schools.

Ahmed Rashid, a well-known Pakistani journalist and expert on the Taliban, recalled his shock at meeting Mortenson. “He has odd socks on and odd shoes on. He’s not a smooth guy,” he said in an interview.

But the more Rashid spoke to Mortenson, the more the journalist was impressed with the American’s knowledge of local tribes.

“He’ll come out of a village and tell you who is al-Qaeda, who is Northern Alliance, who is pro-government,” Rashid said.

It is true that some of Mortenson’s promised schools aren’t functioning. Last year, a Washington Post reporter trekked across the Wakhan Corridor in northeastern Afghanistan, where many of the charity’s schools were built. Several of them were vacant. In one, the desks and chairs were in a pile. Many of CAI’s schools were clearly built in the wrong places — away from population centers.

But nearly every aid organization here has had failures. In some cases, foreign donors constructed schools and handed them to the government to run; they weren’t maintained. U.S. military units often built schools that closed as soon as those troops withdrew from the area.

At Mortenson’s school in Logar, every classroom was full. In one, he pointed to a girl wearing a black headscarf.

“Her father is a Taliban commander,” he whispered to a reporter. “When she came to the school, other families felt it was safe to send their daughters, too.”

It was not possible to confirm such deals. But the Taliban had shuttered nearby schools, deeming their curricula “un-Islamic.”

In the school, Mortenson was a man transformed. He went room to room, teaching arithmetic with a handful of stones. Suddenly, the inarticulate man was funny and no longer self-conscious. He made eye contact with every student.

CAI has $20 million in reserves, but donations have dried up. According to its financial report, it raised about $3 million last year but spent more than $5 million. As he watches the funds dwindle, Mortenson feels guilty and angry.

“I just don’t understand why all these people are trying to bring me down instead of help me,” he said.

‘Almost broke’

In June, nearly as soon as Mortenson arrived in Kabul, the cellphone of the CAI employee who handles his communications started ringing nonstop. Men in Nuristan province wanted a new school. A group in Nangarhar province wanted higher salaries for teachers.

The Nuristani group, long-bearded men from a war-torn province, met him at Kabul’s Intercontinental Hotel, home to a restaurant with white tablecloths and waiters in suits. In the lobby, Mortenson grew nervous, mumbling to himself — not only could he not promise them a school, but he worried about the cost of their dinner.

The Montana attorney general is keeping a close watch on CAI’s expenditures these days. Mortenson says legal costs and the attorney general’s fine have left him “almost broke.”

“It’s probably very expensive,” he said in the hotel lobby.

Mortenson might not be the foremost expert on Afghan culture, but he knew that it would be inappropriate to turn away a group of visitors. When the bill came, he picked it up. It was about $250. He told the men he would try his best to build the school, even though he knew it was out of his hands.

“Before everything happened, I could have done more,” he said later. “There hasn’t been a school in Nuristan for years.”

Uncertain future

At its height, CAI’s Kabul office was buzzing with employees. These days, it’s nearly empty. The employees are mostly cataloguing financial records — cabinets full of paper receipts and handwritten attendance records, which Mortenson points to with pride.

He is hoping his organization can stay afloat; its board has been pushing him to resume public appearances, to jump-start fundraising. But its future is as uncertain as his own.

When he’s at his home in Bozeman, Mont., he spends much of his time reading about Afghanistan and Pakistan on the Internet, and posting links on Facebook.

But he also daydreams about leaving his charity behind. He could spend more time with his wife and children: Khyber, 12, named after the Khyber Pass, and Amira, 18, which means “female leader” in Persian.

Amid all the pain of recent years — his co-author’s suicide after the public disgrace, his near heart failure, which confined him to bed for months — his biggest regret is how he neglected his children during the years of his soaring celebrity. His daughter’s suicide attempt drove that home.

“I’d just been out of the picture. I feel terrible about that,” he said, his voice wavering in a rare display of emotion.

Now, he is weighing his options. He could try to return to public life, to write another book or advise those looking to start nonprofits. But he often seems unready to reemerge.

“Sometimes, I think it would be better if I just stopped talking,” he said. “This stuff from the past is going to come for a long time, whether I say everything was or wasn’t a lie.”

During one of his classroom visits in Kabul, he walked from desk to desk, asking 9-year-old girls what they planned to do when they got older. Some wanted to be midwives or doctors. Others wanted to be teachers. As he saw it, their ambition was another validation, another sign that he shouldn’t give up.

He came to the desk of a girl with a wide smile.

“I want to be a lawyer.”

Mortenson shook her hand.

“I could use some more of those.”

He has, at least, made one concrete plan for his own future. Next year, he’ll enroll in graduate school courses on organizational leadership.

“I’d really like to understand what it is to really be an ethical leader,” he said.

Foreign fighters flow to Syria

An estimated 15,000 militants from at least 80 nations are believed to have entered Syria to help overthrow the regime of President Bashar al-Assad according the CIA and studies by ISCR and The Soufan Group. Many of these fighters are believed to have joined units that are now part of the Islamic State. Western officials are concerned about what these individuals may do upon returning to their native countries.

According to the International Center for the Study of Radicalisation and Political Violence, at least 330 Pakistani youth have already left for Syria to join the hard-line Islamic State to help overthrow Asad’s government. The Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan led by Fazlullah has declared allegiance to the Islamic State. Fazlullah freely operates across the border, kept out only by the current Pakistan military operation in FATA. However, the free movement of the Afghan Taliban into Pakistan threatens to undercut the gains of Zarb-i-Azb.

Observers believe the bigger threat could come from middle class Pakistani youth returned from Europe and the US, with good computer skills and acceptance of the prevailing fatalist religious mind-set in Pakistan.  While overseas, the cultural background of these young men made them recoil against liberal, Western values, including the ubiquitous presence of women. Finding themselves at home amidst a failing economy and exposed to religious fatalism, they are prime candidates for `jihad,’ be it in Afghanistan or Syria.

ISIS Global Appeal (Credit: washpost.com)
ISIS Global Appeal
(Credit: washpost.com)

International Center for the Study of Radicalisation and Political Violence  (ISCR), The Soufan Group, CIA. Gene Thorp, Julie Tate and Swati Sharma. Published on October 11, 2014, 6:44 p.

Bombing in Pakistan and a Wave of Attempts Point to a New Drive by Militants

KP bombing on FC (Credit: dawn.com)
KP bombing on FC
(Credit: dawn.com)

PESHAWAR, Oct 2 — Amid a wave of bombing attempts in this northwestern Pakistani city on Thursday, a bomb rigged to a timer exploded inside a passenger van, killing seven and wounding six, the police said.

Although the attack was the only one of eight attempted bombings to succeed here, the police said, the mass of attempts pointed to a concerted effort by militants to intensify their attacks on government targets.

“The bombs were intended to destroy an electrical tower, and to target police and a convoy of the law enforcement agencies,” said Shafqat Malik, the head of the Peshawar bomb disposal unit, noting that the bombs all had “a level of sophistication.”

“The bomb that went off was to target civilians. Imagine what would have happened, had they all gone off,” he said. “Today was the worst day in my professional career.”

The van that was bombed was set to carry passengers to Parachinar, the main town in the Kurram tribal region.

In an interview, a policeman investigating the case, Ejaz Khan, said that a man had left two bags in the van, then asked the driver to wait for him while he went to bring more passengers. The bomb, with roughly 10 pounds of explosives, went off after he left.

Although Kurram has in the past been a center of sectarian violence between Sunnis and minority Shiites, police officials said it was more likely that the bombing was a randomly chosen terrorist act rather than a targeted killing.

“People are heading home for Eid holidays,” Mr. Khan said, referring to the Eid al-Adha festival this weekend. “There is a lot of rush. No one could have known which passenger was heading where.”

A senior police superintendent, Najib Bhagvi, suspected that Pakistani Taliban militants were behind the attacks. That organization, along with some of its allies and splinter groups, has come under increasing pressure since the start of a military offensive against militant bases in North Waziristan in June.

“Peshawar is heating up, and this is the blow back of the operation in Waziristan,” Mr. Bhagvi said. “All the terrorist outfits, including Al Qaeda, have joined forces and are hitting back.”

Peshawar has seen a surge in militant attacks this year, particularly against the police. Twenty-five policemen have been killed since January, including a police inspector who was shot dead outside his house on Thursday.

Mr. Malik, the bomb squad commander, worried that more attacks were sure to come. “Tough days are ahead,” he said.

‘Secretly located’ Taliban official denies revealing whereabouts after Twitter gaffe tags him in Sindh, Pakistan

Nasiruddin Haqqani alias Zabiullah Mujahid (Credit: thenewstribe.com)
Nasiruddin Haqqani alias Zabiullah Mujahid
(Credit: thenewstribe.com)

A senior Taliban official has denied he is in Pakistan after a Twitter gaffe saw his location tagged as “Sindh, Pakistan”.

Zabihullah Mujahid, whose location is supposed to be secret, has instead said on Twitter that the tagging of Pakistan as a location was an “enemy plot,” insisting he was in Afghanistan, according to the BBC.

The gaffe has added significance as Pakistan has been accused on many occasions of having secret links with the Taliban, which the country’s government denies.

After his followers alerted Mr Mujahid of the location tag, he tweeted: “My Twitter account has been manipulated – as part of weak efforts of enemy plot, it showed that I am based in Sindh of Pakistan, I call this attempt as fake and shame [sic].”

“Now the enemy’s fake act has been exposed, and with full confidence, I can say that I am in my own country.”

Twitter said its geo location data is based on latitude and longitude data, or other information that is provided by users at the time that they post their message.

The social media platform even includes a warning in its explanation of the geo location function, stating: “Remember, once you post something online, it’s out there for others to see.”

Additional reporting by AP